Turkey’s regional rapprochement reshapes Middle East balance, Israeli media warn

Israeli media and regional analysts say Türkiye’s renewed engagement with Egypt and Saudi Arabia—backed by fast-expanding defence cooperation—signals a shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. Ankara’s push to rebuild ties across the region is being read in Israel as the emergence of a new alignment, particularly as arms partnerships, joint production and military exercises deepen at a time of strain in Israel’s relations with key Arab states.

Israeli outlets have warned that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent visits to Cairo and Riyadh, alongside a series of cooperation agreements, point to a meaningful recalibration of regional politics. The daily Yediot Aharonot described Erdoğan’s back-to-back trips as a “marked improvement” in Ankara’s relations with both capitals, unfolding as prospects for Saudi–Israeli normalisation dim and Israeli–Egyptian ties face renewed friction.

Citing Dr Galia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies, the paper noted that Türkiye has worked since 2021 to repair relationships across the Middle East, with Egypt proving the most complex due to earlier political rifts. The thaw has accelerated over the past two years, culminating in reciprocal presidential visits and widening defence ties.

Defence cooperation at the core

Defence has emerged as the centrepiece of the rapprochement. Analysts say Türkiye’s rise as a defence supplier—particularly in unmanned systems—has altered calculations in Arab capitals seeking to diversify away from traditional suppliers.

Saudi cooperation, Israeli media noted, has gone beyond purchases to include joint production, reflecting a broader regional trend to reduce reliance on the United States and Western suppliers. Similar logic is now shaping Ankara’s partnership with Cairo.

During Erdoğan’s visit to Egypt, the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement in the presence of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with the accord inked by Türkiye’s defence minister Yaşar Güler and Egypt’s defence minister Abdel Mageed Saqr.

Military ties have expanded steadily since full diplomatic relations were restored in 2023. Egypt and Türkiye resumed joint drills last year under the name “Sea of Friendship”—their first such exercises in 13 years—and have agreed to cooperate on the joint production of unmanned aerial vehicles.

Cairo has also joined Türkiye’s fifth-generation fighter jet programme, KAAN, while Turkish firms have moved to establish a permanent industrial footprint in Egypt.

Technology transfer and joint production

Egyptian analysts say Ankara’s willingness to transfer technology has been a decisive factor. Bashir Abdel Fattah, an Egyptian academic specialising in international relations, said cooperation spans three areas: regular joint exercises; joint defence manufacturing—covering air defence, missiles, ammunition, drones and potentially aircraft; and security and intelligence coordination on issues ranging from counterterrorism to the Mediterranean, Libya and Sudan.

Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahid, an Egyptian national security expert, said both countries face similar challenges from shifting regional power balances and the emergence of new actors, prompting a drive to rebuild influence. He added that Türkiye’s approach contrasts with Western suppliers by avoiding stringent political conditions.

Concrete steps are already visible. Bayraktar drones bearing the Egyptian flag were displayed at the Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX 2025). Egypt and Türkiye agreed last August to jointly produce vertical take-off and landing drones, while unmanned ground vehicle production has begun through a partnership between Havelsan and Egypt’s Kader Factory. Defence electronics firm Aselsan has opened a regional office in Egypt to support local partners.

A $350m arms deal underscores momentum

The warming ties were underscored by a major export agreement signed during Erdoğan’s Cairo visit. Türkiye’s state-owned arms producer Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation (MKE) agreed a deal worth $350 million with Egypt’s Ministry of Defence, covering ammunition sales and the establishment of production lines in Egypt, according to sources cited by Middle East Eye.

Ankara and Cairo have gradually deepened cooperation since appointing ambassadors in 2023, following a decade of strained relations after the 2013 change of power in Egypt. Officials and analysts say overlapping interests—from Gaza to Somalia and Sudan—have further accelerated coordination.

Israeli concerns over a “new reality”

Israeli commentary has linked the rapprochement partly to the Gaza war. Egypt views developments in Gaza as directly tied to its national security and fears destabilising displacement, creating incentives to coordinate with Türkiye. The resumption of joint exercises and rapid defence-industrial integration are being interpreted in Israel as indicators of a longer-term shift.

Israeli analysts argue that the emerging alignment should be treated as a new geopolitical reality, particularly as Arab states seek alternative security partnerships and diversify arms suppliers—moves that could gradually reshape long-standing regional relationships.

Arab and Israeli sources

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