Turkey’s Exports to Gulf Hit by War Shock, Minister Says

Turkey’s exports to Gulf countries have dropped sharply amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, with March data showing a steep decline. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy costs have weighed heavily on trade flows, though early signs of recovery in orders are emerging.

Sharp Drop in Gulf Exports

Turkey’s Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said exports to Gulf countries have been significantly impacted by the war.

• 2025 exports to the Gulf: nearly $31 billion
• Imports from the region: $25.5 billion

However, between March 1–29:

• Exports fell 36.5% year-on-year to $1.2 billion
• Imports rose 3% to $1.6 billion, driven by higher energy prices

The decline was led by reduced shipments to:

• United Arab Emirates
• Iraq
• Iran
• Saudi Arabia

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Trade Routes

Bolat highlighted the importance of logistics in Turkey’s Gulf trade.

• 44.3% of exports were transported by road
• 40% of imports relied on maritime routes

The disruption of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz has:

• Increased freight costs
• Slowed deliveries
• Disrupted supply chains

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New Land Route Strategy to Offset Disruptions

To mitigate the impact, Turkey has moved quickly to establish alternative logistics routes.

Following negotiations with Saudi Arabia:

• Truck drivers have been granted 15-day transit visas

This allows goods to reach Gulf markets within 3–4 days by land.

In addition:

• Transit trade through Syria has resumed
• Routes via Jordan and Saudi Arabia are being activated

These steps are expected to accelerate trade flows in the near term.

Energy Shock Managed Through Policy Measures

Bolat said the war has pushed up prices for:

• Oil
• Natural gas
• Fertilizer
• Freight

However, Turkey has avoided supply disruptions thanks to:

• Diversified energy sourcing
• Strong storage capacity

To cushion the economic impact:

• A fuel price stabilization mechanism was introduced
• The Treasury absorbed over TRY 600 billion in lost tax revenues

Fertilizer Measures to Protect Domestic Supply

The government also implemented emergency measures in agriculture:

• Fertilizer exports were halted
• Import tariffs were reduced to zero
• Existing stocks were redirected to domestic use

These measures aim to contain price pressures in key sectors.

Early Signs of Recovery in Orders

Despite the sharp drop in exports, Bolat pointed to early signs of improvement:

• Orders from Gulf and global markets are beginning to recover
• Falling inventories are triggering new demand

This suggests that export activity could rebound once conditions stabilize.

Chemical Sector Remains a Key Driver

Bolat emphasized the importance of the chemical industry:

• Export value: $32 billion in 2025
• Turkey ranks:
  • 6th globally in plastics production
  • 2nd in Europe

The country is also strengthening its position in:

• Cosmetics
• Cleaning products
• Pharmaceuticals and medical devices

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Turkey Aims to Become Regional Supply Hub

Looking ahead, Bolat said Turkey is positioning itself as a reliable supply and logistics hub in the region.

Once the conflict ends, Turkey aims to:

• Strengthen trade links
• Expand logistics capacity
• Increase its role in regional supply chains

Conclusion

The Middle East conflict has delivered a significant blow to Turkey’s exports to the Gulf, while rising energy prices have increased import costs.

However:

• Alternative trade routes
• Early signs of demand recovery

offer some optimism for a rebound once geopolitical conditions stabilize.

The trajectory of energy prices and the duration of the conflict will remain critical for Turkey’s external trade outlook.