Turkey Walks a Tightrope as Iran War Escalates Across Region

As the U.S.-Israel war on Iran expands beyond a regional conflict, Turkey is pursuing a delicate balancing act—maintaining neutrality while intensifying diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis. Ankara faces rising security, economic, and geopolitical risks but is positioning itself as a key mediator.

Ankara Opposed War From the Start

Turkey had warned against military escalation even before the conflict erupted.

• Joined Gulf states in urging Washington to pursue diplomacy
• Warned that even “limited strikes” could trigger regional spillover

Those concerns have largely materialized, with the conflict now affecting multiple regions from the Gulf to Europe.

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A Delicate Balance Between Washington and Tehran

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken a calibrated stance:

• Condemned U.S. and Israeli strikes as violations of Iran’s sovereignty
• Criticized Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states as “unacceptable”

This dual-track response reflects Turkey’s long-standing strategy of geopolitical balancing.

A Complex Relationship With Iran

Turkey’s relationship with Iran is best described as “cooperative rivalry.”

While competing in certain theaters, the two countries have aligned on key issues:

• Opposition to the 2017 Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum
• Shared criticism of Israeli regional policies
• Support for Qatar during the Gulf blockade

Ankara does not view Tehran as an existential threat, but rather as a regional competitor with overlapping interests.

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Biggest Concern: Instability in Iran

Turkey’s primary fear is not a stronger Iran—but a collapsing one.

Potential risks include:

• A new refugee wave
• Rising ethnic tensions
• Increased activity by Kurdish militant groups

A breakdown in Iran could empower groups linked to the PKK, posing a direct threat to Turkey’s internal security.

Sensitivity Over Kurdish Dynamics

Reports suggesting the U.S. might support Kurdish elements inside Iran have alarmed Ankara.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:

• Warned against exploiting ethnic divisions
• Sought assurances from Washington

Turkey sees Iran’s territorial integrity as critical to regional stability and its own national security.

Missile Incidents Raise Stakes

Missiles intercepted over or near Turkish airspace in March heightened tensions.

• NATO systems intercepted incoming projectiles
• Ankara issued strong warnings to Tehran

President Erdoğan emphasized that violations of Turkish airspace are unacceptable, while Iran denied responsibility.

Economic Pressures Mount

The war is already impacting Turkey’s fragile economic balance:

• Rising oil prices are fueling inflation risks
• Dependence on imported energy increases vulnerability
• Gas imports from Iran face potential disruption

Adding to uncertainty, long-term energy agreements with Russia and Iran are nearing expiration.

Tourism and Trade Take a Hit

Regional instability is also affecting Turkey’s real economy:

• Tourism from Iran and neighboring countries has nearly stopped
• Eastern and southeastern regions are particularly affected

Major destinations like Istanbul and Antalya remain relatively resilient—for now.

Turkey Positions Itself as Mediator

Ankara has stepped up diplomatic engagement:

• Maintaining communication with the U.S., Iran, EU, and Gulf states
• Promoting ceasefire initiatives
• Acting as an indirect channel for dialogue

Turkey’s ability to speak to all sides gives it unique leverage as a mediator.

Israel Factor Complicates the Equation

Israel’s increasingly aggressive posture introduces additional risks:

• Raises tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv
• Could undermine Turkey’s mediation role

If the U.S. and Israel diverge in strategy, Turkey’s diplomatic positioning could become more complex.

Conclusion: High Stakes, Narrow Margin for Error

Turkey finds itself caught between competing powers in a rapidly escalating conflict.

Its strategy is clear:

• Stay out of the war
• Preserve regional stability
• Use diplomacy to limit escalation

But as the conflict drags on, maintaining this balance will become increasingly difficult.