Turkey Election Survey: CHP Leading by Over 4 Points in March
Gündemar-survey
The political landscape in Turkey is witnessing a widening gap at the top, according to the latest Turkey Election Survey conducted by Gündemar Research and Consulting. The study, carried out between March 23-26, 2026, with 2,200 participants, shows the main opposition CHP solidifying its lead. After distributing undecided voters, the CHP reached 33.37%, a 0.65-point increase from the previous month, maintaining its position as the country’s top political force.
AK Party Slips as MHP and İYİ Party Gain Momentum
The election poll results indicate a challenging period for the ruling AK Party, with its support dropping by 0.69 points to 29.16%. This shift has pushed the margin between the two leading parties to over 4 percentage points.
While the giants of Turkish politics fluctuate, the nationalist wing is seeing a resurgence; both MHP (6.30%) and İYİ Party (5.49%) recorded significant gains of nearly one percentage point each compared to February.
In contrast, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party experienced a notable decline, falling to 7.94%. Other parties, such as the Victory Party (Zafer), remained relatively stable at 5.47%, while the Yeniden Refah Party (YRP) and the newly formed Anahtar Party both saw their support wane as voters appear to be consolidating around more established nationalist and opposition blocs.
Voter Trends: Shifts in the “Undecided” Column
A key takeaway from this survey is the methodology used to gauge the electorate’s current mood. Using both CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing), researchers found that when the “no opinion” and “protest vote” groups are distributed, the polarized nature of the 25-44 demographic becomes more apparent.
The rise of the TİP (1.28%) and other smaller parties suggests a slight fragmentation among niche voters, yet the primary battle remains between the CHP’s growth and the AK Party’s efforts to stem its current losses. As the “scissors” open at the top of the pyramid, all eyes are on whether the nationalist surge in the MHP and İYİ Party can be sustained into the second quarter of the year.
