Turkey Economic Outlook 2026: ING Forecasts 4pct Growth

The latest 2025 fourth-quarter growth data has confirmed a cooling period for the Turkish economy, aligning with expectations from global financial analysts. According to a recent report by ING Global, the year-end figures verify a loss of momentum on both an annual and quarterly basis. Despite this slowdown, the primary driver of economic activity remains domestic demand, while net exports continue to subtract from GDP. This imbalance suggests that the structural rebalancing targeted by the current economic program still requires significant progress.

Leading Indicators Point to a 2026 Recovery

While 2025 ended on a quiet note, ING analysts highlight a shift in the wind for the first quarter of 2026. Forward-looking indicators, including PMI data (Purchasing Managers’ Index), capacity utilization rates, and consumer and real-sector confidence indices, are signaling a renewed acceleration in growth.

This optimistic outlook is largely fueled by:

• Monetary Easing: Gradual interest rate cuts initiated in the second half of 2025.

• Policy Cycles: The expectation that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will continue its easing cycle throughout the year.

Balanced Growth: The Role of Macro-Prudential Measures

Despite the anticipated recovery, the growth trajectory is expected to remain controlled. A coordinated effort between the CBRT and the BRSA (BDDK) has tightened the macro-prudential framework to prevent overheating. These regulatory “speed bumps” are designed to keep the recovery in demand within sustainable limits, preventing a spike in inflation.

Consequently, ING Global has maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at 4.0%. While the easing cycle provides a tailwind, the strict macro-prudential stance ensures that the growth remains qualitative and aligned with long-term stability goals.