The Pollster Divide: Is the AKP Recovering or Sliding Toward an Economic Cliff?

ANKARA – As Turkey moves toward the 2026-2027 political cycle, a sharp divide has emerged between leading pollsters regarding the standing of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). While pro-government figures claim a widening lead for the AKP, independent pollsters warn that structural economic decay and legal maneuvers against opposition mayors are creating a “boomerang effect.”

SONAR: “Economic Maneuvers Are No Longer Enough”

Hakan Bayrakçı, head of the prominent SONAR Research, recently issued a stark warning to the ruling coalition. Speaking on current voter sentiment, Bayrakçı argued that the government has reached the limit of its “pre-election giveaway” strategy.

“The point where you can save a campaign by giving pensioners a raise three months before the election has passed,” Bayrakçı stated. He noted that three to four years of accumulated inflation have “exhausted” the electorate, meaning that short-term financial injections may no longer suffice to repair the AKP’s standing.

Bayrakçı also highlighted a significant shift in the impact of legal actions against CHP-run municipalities. Contrary to government expectations, he noted that arrests and “trustee” appointments have not weakened the opposition. Instead, they have fostered a sense of “victimhood” that bolsters CHP support. “When we look at the statistics, we see an increase in CHP votes following raids on party buildings or trustee disputes,” Bayrakçı observed, suggesting that voters increasingly view these moves as political pressure rather than judicial necessity.

The AKP Strategy: “Surgical” Polling and Micro-Data

On the other side of the aisle, the AKP’s internal polling machine—led by Deputy Chairman Faruk Acar—presents a much more optimistic picture. According to Acar, the AKP’s support has stabilized around 36-37%, while the CHP has allegedly slipped to the 25-26% range.

The AKP’s approach to polling is notably more “surgical” than that of its rivals. Sources close to the Presidency suggest that Erdoğan is personally reviewing highly detailed data that tracks the “capillaries of society.” Rather than just asking for party preference, AKP pollsters are asking lifestyle questions such as:

• “What was the last item you purchased for your home?”

• “Which public transport vehicle do you use?”

• “How many people in your household receive social aid?”

This data allows the party to map the precise purchasing power and social needs of its base, enabling a more targeted “perception management” strategy.

The “İmamoğlu Trial” Factor

A major point of contention between the two camps is the impact of the ongoing trial against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. While the opposition views the trial as a unifying force for their base, AKP internal data reportedly suggests that the “Claiming the People’s Will” rallies organized by the CHP have a limited impact, moving the needle by only 2.5% to 3.5%.

Interestingly, AKP insiders admit the party carefully measures the democratic “cost” of their actions. “We don’t do anything without measuring it first,” one official noted, explaining why the government has not blocked certain protest rallies: they simply don’t believe the rallies are gaining enough traction to pose a threat.

Conclusion: A Battle of Trends

The discrepancy between a 10-point lead (claimed by the AKP) and a “first party” status (claimed by Bayrakçı for the CHP) suggests that the Turkish electorate remains highly volatile. While the AKP relies on its mastery of micro-data and social aid tracking to maintain its base, independent analysts argue that the “authoritarian darkness” and the sheer weight of the economic crisis are creating a structural shift that even the most sophisticated polling strategy cannot hide.

PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

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