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The Housing Price Index: Prices Rise Nominally but Fall in Real Terms

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The Housing Price Index (HPI) saw a monthly increase of 2% in March 2026, according to the latest data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB). While property values continue to climb in nominal terms, the impact of inflation has led to a significant “real” decline in the market’s value, marking a period in which house price growth is trailing the general cost of living.

The Housing Price Index Trends: Nominal Growth vs. Real Decline

The HPI reached 219.7 in March, reflecting a 26.4% annual increase. However, when adjusted for inflation, housing prices actually declined 3.4% in real terms compared with the same period last year. This trend suggests that while home sticker prices are rising, their relative value in terms of purchasing power is softening.

Geographically, the three major metropolitan areas followed a similar upward path in nominal pricing:

  • İzmir: Led the trio with a 2.8% monthly increase.

  • Ankara: Followed with a 2.5% increase.

  • İstanbul: Saw a slightly more modest 2.2% increase.

On an annual basis, Ankara recorded the highest growth among the big three at 30.4%, followed by İstanbul at 27.8% and İzmir at 24.3%.

Renters Face Increasing Pressure: The YKKE Report

While buyers might be seeing a cooling in real prices, the situation for tenants remains difficult. The New Tenant Rent Index (YKKE) rose by 2% in March, matching the pace of house prices. However, unlike property values, rents are outpacing inflation.

The YKKE recorded an annual nominal increase of 34.4%, which translates to a 2.7% real increase. This means the cost of starting a new lease is becoming more expensive, even after inflation is taken into account.

Regional Highlights

  • Highest Price Growth: The region including Nevşehir, Niğde, and Kayseri saw the sharpest annual house price spike at 31.5%.

  • Highest Rental Growth: The Northeastern region (Erzurum, Erzincan, Kars, etc.) experienced the most dramatic annual rent increase at 40.5%.

  • Lowest Growth: Edirne, Kırklareli, and Tekirdağ saw the lowest house price growth (21.1%), while the earthquake-affected region of Hatay and Kahramanmaraş saw the lowest rental increase (25.7%).

 

 

Source: TCMB

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