The Elevated Role of Türkiye in the Middle East

As Iran’s regional influence wanes and the United States signals partial disengagement, Türkiye is emerging as a pivotal power in the Middle East. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s flexible foreign policy — balancing Russia, the West, and regional actors — has positioned Ankara at the center of shifting geopolitical dynamics, particularly in Syria and Iraq.

Erdoğan’s Strategic Pivot to the Middle East

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has demonstrated notable tactical agility in reshaping Türkiye’s Middle East policy over the past decade and a half.

In the early 2010s, Ankara leaned heavily on soft-power diplomacy, building ties with regional leaders. During the Arab Spring, however, Erdoğan shifted course dramatically, calling for a Libya-style international intervention against Bashar al-Assad and hosting Syrian opposition groups — including Islamist factions — in Istanbul.

After tensions with Moscow escalated following the downing of a Turkish jet in 2015, Ankara recalibrated. Frustrated by Western reluctance to escalate in Syria, Türkiye pursued pragmatic rapprochement with Russia. This balancing act would later culminate in Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, leading to its removal from the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program.

Erdoğan’s pivot to the Middle East coincided with a consolidation of domestic power. After an initial outreach to Kurdish voters failed to deliver constitutional backing for a presidential system, Erdoğan formed an alliance with Devlet Bahçeli’s MHP, securing the political transformation that centralized executive authority.

Military Projection and Regional Assertiveness

Erdoğan’s regional posture has blended pragmatism and revisionism.

• In Libya, Ankara intervened decisively to halt Khalifa Haftar’s advance on Tripoli, preserving the Government of National Accord.

• In the Eastern Mediterranean, Türkiye challenged Greece and Cyprus over maritime zones.

• In Nagorno-Karabakh, Ankara supported Azerbaijan’s military gains, limiting Russia’s leverage in the South Caucasus.

• In Iraq, Türkiye intensified operations against the PKK.

• In Syria, successive operations — Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring — targeted ISIS and the YPG.

Following the fall of Assad and the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria’s interim leader, Ankara appears to have secured a lasting footprint in northern Syria.

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Türkiye, Israel, and Iran: A Shifting Triangle

Tensions between Türkiye and Israel have fluctuated since 2009, deteriorating sharply after the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident. Following the October 7, 2023 attacks, Erdoğan’s rhetoric toward Israel intensified again.

Meanwhile, Iran’s regional posture has weakened significantly after Assad’s removal. Türkiye views Iran’s influence as destabilizing but remains wary of sudden regime change in Tehran, which could trigger Kurdish militancy spillover.

Ankara is also recalibrating its energy dependencies — reducing reliance on both Iran and Russia to enhance strategic autonomy.

The power vacuum created by Iran’s retreat from Syria presents opportunities for Türkiye. Defense agreements signed in Ankara in August 2025 between Turkish and Syrian officials formalized security cooperation and underscored Ankara’s embedded role in shaping Syria’s new order.

For Iran, Türkiye’s assertive posture raises concerns of neo-Ottoman resurgence. Tehran’s ability to counter Ankara in Syria appears limited, shifting competition toward Iraq — where Türkiye is advancing infrastructure initiatives such as the Development Road corridor linking Basra to Mersin.

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Erdoğan and Trump: Converging Strategic Calculations

Relations between Erdoğan and Donald Trump have historically been pragmatic. Under Trump’s evolving foreign policy doctrine — favoring reduced long-term U.S. entanglements — regional allies are expected to shoulder greater security burdens.

Recent U.S. operations in the region have been short and targeted, signaling reluctance for prolonged engagement. In such a framework, a weakened Iran combined with gradual U.S. retrenchment could elevate Türkiye’s role by default.

Washington may view Ankara as a manageable NATO-aligned power capable of stabilizing key arenas without requiring sustained American deployment.

Strategic Implications

As nuclear negotiations with Iran continue, the United States has maintained a strengthened military posture while leaving open the possibility of further strikes.

A diminished Iran would leave a strategic vacuum in parts of the Middle East — one that Türkiye is well positioned to fill. This aligns with Erdoğan’s broader neo-Ottoman vision of regional leadership.

However, a stronger and more autonomous Türkiye may also complicate Israel’s strategic calculus. For Israel, the key question may not be whether Iran weakens, but what kind of regional order emerges in its place.

Türkiye remains embedded within NATO and broadly aligned with Western institutions, despite periodic tensions. In Washington’s eyes, an expanded Turkish role may represent a more predictable alternative to Iranian dominance.

The emerging balance of power suggests that Middle Eastern security tensions are unlikely to disappear — but they may increasingly revolve around Ankara rather than Tehran.

Source:  Manara Magazine

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