Şeker Investment March Equity Strategy: Target 16,500, “BUY” Recommendation Maintained

Şeker Investment has maintained its 12-month BIST-100 target of 16,500, implying roughly 20% upside from current levels, and reiterated its “BUY” recommendation. While geopolitical risks and global policy uncertainty are expected to keep markets volatile in March, the brokerage retains a constructive medium- to long-term outlook.

February: From Rally to Consolidation

Despite January inflation coming in above expectations, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) maintained its inflation forecasts in its latest Inflation Report. Meanwhile:

• Turkey’s CDS risk premium remained stable in the 210–225 basis point range.

• Foreign fund inflows, though limited, continued.

These factors supported BIST-100 gains in the first half of the month.

However, as the index approached the 14,500 level, profit-taking intensified. Rising tensions along the U.S.–Iran axis also weighed on sentiment. As a result, the upward trend seen since the beginning of the year shifted toward a sideways-to-negative trajectory.

In February:

• The BIST-100 Index declined 0.87% to close at 13,717.81.

• The Industrial Index fell 1.63%.

• The Banking Index rose 1.34%, outperforming the broader market.

Equity Strategy Note: It Is Too Early to Price the Worst-Case Scenario

Geopolitical Risks in Focus

Şeker Investment warns that an escalation of the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran could raise global geopolitical risk perceptions.

Such a scenario could:

• Intensify concerns about energy supply security

• Complicate the global inflation outlook

• Increase uncertainty regarding monetary policy paths

• Encourage central banks to maintain cautious stances

Accordingly, developments in both the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to remain closely monitored by investors.

March Outlook: Inflation and TCMB in Spotlight

In March, the brokerage sees several global factors weighing on risk appetite:

• The U.S.’s aggressive foreign policy stance

• Uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs

• Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

Domestically, attention will center on:

• Inflation data

• The TCMB’s interest rate decision

Şeker Investment expects the BIST-100 to trade in a volatile pattern during March. The outlook assumes that the disinflation process remains intact and that rate cuts continue in a limited manner, supported by ongoing foreign investor interest.

Although short-term fluctuations may persist following the strong rally earlier in the year, the brokerage maintains a gradual accumulation strategy for medium- and long-term investors — provided geopolitical risks ease.

Atilla Yesilada market view: Run, hide, take cover

12-Month Target: 16,500

Şeker Investment reiterated its:

• 12-month BIST-100 target of 16,500

• “BUY” recommendation, citing approximately 20% upside potential

The MSCI Turkey Index is currently trading at:

• 7.89x 2026E P/E

• 0.98x P/B

These levels imply discounts of 41% and 54%, respectively, relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Portfolio Adjustments

Given the potential impact of heightened geopolitical risks on the aviation sector:

• THYAO has been removed from the model portfolio.

• TUPRS has been added in its place.

To create a more defensive portfolio structure:

• DOAS has been replaced by

• FROTO, which is considered more resilient in a cautious market environment.

Key Market Risks

Şeker Investment identifies the following major risks:

• Escalation of active conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine region

• Rising energy prices fueling global inflation and complicating monetary policy

• Aggressive U.S. foreign policy moves heightening global trade tensions, particularly with China and Europe

• A disruption in the TCMB’s rate-cutting cycle if inflation fails to decline as expected

Conclusion

While short-term volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty, Şeker Investment maintains a constructive medium- and long-term outlook for Turkish equities.

A stabilization in geopolitical risks, combined with continued disinflation and measured monetary easing, could support a renewed upward trajectory in the BIST-100 over the coming quarters.