Seasonally Adjusted Inflation Picks Up Speed in Turkey

Turkey’s inflation momentum showed a clear acceleration at the start of the year, according to fresh data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). Figures for January indicate that seasonally adjusted consumer price increases accelerated relative to the previous month, signaling renewed upward pressure across a broad range of prices in the economy.

At the center of the data is the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI), which provides a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends by filtering out temporary or calendar-related effects. TÜİK’s latest release shows that the overall CPI rose 2.88% month-on-month in January, a sharp increase compared with the 1.65% rise recorded in December. This jump suggests that price dynamics strengthened noticeably at the beginning of the year.

A Stronger Monthly Inflation Signal

Seasonally adjusted data is closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers because it helps distinguish structural inflationary pressures from short-term volatility. The January figures point to a broad-based acceleration rather than a narrow, one-off movement driven by a single category.

The rise in the headline CPI indicates that price increases were more pronounced across the consumption basket. Compared with the relatively moderate pace observed at the end of last year, January’s data reflects a shift toward faster monthly inflation, reinforcing concerns about the persistence of price pressures in Turkey’s economy.

This trend is particularly important because monthly inflation rates often serve as early indicators of how annual inflation may evolve. A higher seasonally adjusted monthly increase can translate into stronger year-on-year figures if the momentum is sustained in the coming months.

Core Inflation Measures Also Accelerate

Beyond the headline CPI, TÜİK’s release also highlights developments in core inflation indicators, which exclude certain volatile items to better capture underlying price trends. These measures are critical for understanding whether inflation is being driven by temporary shocks or more entrenched factors.

One key indicator, known as the B index, excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and gold. In January, the seasonally adjusted B index increased 2.50% on a monthly basis, up from 1.94% in the previous month. This acceleration suggests that even after stripping out highly volatile components, price pressures intensified.

Another widely followed measure, the C index, which excludes energy, food, and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and gold, also showed a stronger rise. The C index increased by 2.45% in January, compared with 2.05% in December. This confirms that inflationary momentum is not limited to specific categories but is spreading across core goods and services.

What the Data Tells Us About Inflation Dynamics

The simultaneous increases in the headline CPI and core inflation indicators paint a consistent picture: inflationary pressures intensified at the start of the year. When core measures rise alongside the overall index, this often indicates demand-driven factors, cost pressures, or pricing behavior that extend beyond temporary shocks.

Economists typically view such developments as a sign that inflation may prove more persistent, especially if wage dynamics, expectations, and pricing strategies continue to reinforce higher monthly increases. While seasonal adjustments remove predictable fluctuations, the remaining trend suggests that underlying inflation remains elevated.

Why Seasonally Adjusted Data Matters

Seasonally adjusted inflation figures are particularly useful during periods of economic transition or policy recalibration. They allow analysts to compare months more accurately and identify turning points in inflation trends. In Turkey’s case, the January data stands out as a notable uptick following a comparatively softer end to the previous year.

For policymakers, including the central bank, these indicators provide essential input when assessing monetary conditions. Persistent increases in seasonally adjusted and core inflation measures can influence decisions related to interest rates, liquidity management, and broader financial stability policies.