Türkiye’s SAMEKS Composite Index dropped into contraction territory in February 2026, declining 3.3 points to 49.4. While the industrial sector posted a strong rebound, a sharp deterioration in services dragged overall economic activity into slowdown territory, signaling rising downside risks for growth.

Composite Index Slips Below 50

The seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index fell by 3.3 points month-on-month to 49.4 in February 2026.

A reading below the 50 threshold signals contraction in economic activity. The latest data indicate a loss of momentum compared with the previous month and suggest that overall business conditions remain fragile.

The February reading points to emerging downside risks in first-quarter growth dynamics.

Industrial Sector Shows Strong Recovery

Industrial Index Climbs to 55.8

The seasonally adjusted Industrial Sector SAMEKS Index rose 6.6 points from the previous month to 55.8, moving firmly back into expansion territory.

Sub-index data suggest a broad-based improvement:

🔹 Production

• Up 3.6 points

• Reached 48.2

• Signaling improving operating conditions

🔹 New Orders

• Up 12.5 points

• Rose to 60.9

• Reflecting robust demand conditions

🔹 Input Purchases

• Up 20.8 points

• Jumped to 77.6

• Suggesting firms are accelerating procurement in anticipation of higher production

🔹 Inventories

• Down 13.1 points

• Fell to 41.5

• Indicating cautious, demand-driven inventory management

🔹 Supplier Delivery Times

• Down 2.8 points

• Recorded at 45.8

🔹 Employment

• Down 1.9 points

• Eased to 49.8

• Pointing to limited workforce contraction

Overall, industrial data indicate that production and demand conditions improved markedly in February, although employment and inventory dynamics remain cautious.

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Services Sector Contracts Sharply

Services Index Drops to 46.0

The Services Sector SAMEKS Index fell 8.4 points month-on-month to 46.0, signaling a pronounced contraction.

Key sub-indices highlight demand weakness:

🔹 Business Volume

• Down 8.8 points

• Declined to 38.4

• Pointing to a significant drop in service demand

🔹 Input Purchases

• Down 12.4 points

• Fell to 59.5

🔹 Inventories

• Down 7.0 points

• Declined to 39.5

🔹 Supplier Delivery Times

• Down 5.6 points

• Recorded at 47.5

🔹 Employment

• Down 4.5 points

• Dropped to 47.0

• Signaling continued workforce contraction

The data suggest that the slowdown in services is primarily demand-driven rather than supply-constrained.

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Growing Sectoral Divergence

February’s SAMEKS results highlight a widening divergence between sectors:

• Industry returned to expansion

• Services contracted sharply

• The composite index slipped into contraction

The contrast suggests that domestic demand weakness is weighing more heavily on services, while industrial activity — supported by production and new orders — remains comparatively resilient.

Outlook: Downside Risks Persist

The February reading of 49.4 for the composite index indicates:

• Slowing growth momentum

• Weakening domestic demand

• Cautious business sentiment

• Elevated downside risks

Although the industrial sector shows signs of recovery, the sharp deterioration in services suggests that overall economic activity has yet to achieve a balanced expansion.

Upcoming data on credit conditions, domestic consumption and external demand will be critical in determining whether the slowdown deepens or stabilizes in the coming months.