Revenue surge and spending discipline fuel fiscal recovery in February 2026
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ANKARA – The Ministry of Treasury and Finance has released the cash realization figures for February 2026, revealing a dramatic transformation in Turkey’s fiscal health compared to the previous year. While the Treasury recorded a nominal cash deficit of 92.4 billion TL, a deeper analysis shows a significant structural improvement, headlined by a powerful shift into a primary surplus.
From Deficit to Strength: The Primary Balance Pivot
The standout feature of the February report is the 90.9 billion TL primary surplus. In a stark reversal from February 2025—which saw a primary deficit of 170.4 billion TL—the government has successfully realigned its core finances. This surplus indicates that current revenues are now comfortably exceeding non-interest operational expenditures.
The Numbers: Real Growth vs. Nominal Trends
In February 2026, Treasury revenues climbed to 1.38 trillion TL, while total expenditures reached 1.47 trillion TL. Interest payments for the month stood at 183.3 billion TL.
When adjusted for inflation (deflated by an average CPI of 45% to match 2025 constant prices), the fiscal tightening becomes even more apparent:
- Real Revenue Growth: After accounting for inflation, Treasury revenues rose by 32.2% year-on-year.
- Spending Restraint: Total real expenditures actually declined by 1.3% in real terms, signaling a period of strict fiscal consolidation.
- Deficit Compression: The budget deficit, which stood at 310.1 billion TL in February 2025, has effectively shrunk by 79.5% in real terms, falling to a deflated value of just 63.7 billion TL.
Cash Movements and Market Impact
The report also noted that exchange rate fluctuations led to a 16.1 billion TL decrease in accounts, while the Treasury’s net kasa/banka (cash/bank) accounts saw a reduction of 48.2 billion TL.
Economic analysts suggest that this “Primary Flip”—moving from a deep primary deficit to a surplus—is a critical milestone for 2026. It suggests that the fiscal drag on the economy is easing and that the budget is moving toward a more sustainable, revenue-driven model.
Important note: It is usual for VAT and Special Consumption Tax collection to shift a month. Once we obtain detailed data, we shall renew our analysis
