Polls Show Turkish Government’s “Fortress” Crumbling Among Minimum Wage Earners and Youth

ISTANBUL — New polling data released in January 2026 indicates a seismic shift in Turkey’s political landscape. As the country grapples with a persistent cost-of-living crisis and controversial wage adjustments, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has emerged as the leading choice among the nation’s most economically vulnerable and its youngest voters.

Recent studies conducted by ORC Research, PIAR, and HBS Research suggest that the ruling AK Party is losing its grip on key demographics that were once the bedrock of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s electoral success.

Minimum Wage Earners Turn to the Opposition

The government’s decision to set the 2026 minimum wage at 28,075 TL—notably below the hunger threshold of 30,143 TL—has triggered a backlash at the ballot box. According to ORC’s specialized survey of minimum wage workers conducted between January 20-22, the CHP has secured a dominant lead in this segment.

• CHP: 35.3%

• AK Party: 29.1%

• MHP: 6.4%

Analysts point to CHP leader Özgür Özel’s aggressive campaign for a 39,000 TL minimum wage as a primary driver for this shift. For the first time in years, the “working poor” demographic appears to be prioritizing immediate economic relief over the ideological loyalty traditionally offered to the AK Party.

The Youth Vote: A Widening Gap and a “Zafer” Surprise

The data concerning voters aged 17-26 paints an even starker picture for the ruling coalition. In this age group, the CHP leads with 33%, while the AK Party trails at 25.6%—a 7.4-point gap.

The most striking result among young voters, however, is the rise of the ultra-nationalist Zafer Party (ZP). Securing 7% of the youth vote, the Zafer Party has overtaken established players like the MHP and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. This trend underscores a growing wave of secular-nationalist sentiment among Gen Z, often fueled by concerns over migration and national identity.

Presidential Race: Mansur Yavaş Leads the Pack

Perhaps the most damaging news for the Presidency comes from HBS Research, a firm noted for its accuracy in the 2023 elections. Their latest simulation of a head-to-head presidential runoff shows Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş holding a commanding lead over President Erdoğan.

• Mansur Yavaş: 54.8%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 45.2% (projected)

Yavaş’s “technocratic” and less polarized political style continues to appeal to a broad cross-section of the electorate, including disillusioned former AK Party supporters.

Conclusion: A State of Attrition

While the AK Party remains the largest single party in some general polls at roughly 32.2%, the momentum is clearly with the opposition. PIAR Research recently placed the CHP in the first position overall, reflecting a “tide” that is rising against the government’s current economic management. With “early election” calls growing louder from both the opposition and frustrated citizens, the government faces a difficult winter of balancing fiscal discipline with the need to win back its core base.