OPINION: The Great Defection: Erdoğan’s Campaign to Reclaim Local Power Through Transfers

A major political realignment is sweeping through Turkey’s local governments as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AK Party (AKP) executes a high-stakes strategy to reclaim municipalities lost in the 2024 elections. Through a series of high-profile defections involving both the main opposition CHP and the New Welfare Party (YRP), the political map of Turkey is being redrawn not at the ballot box, but through political maneuvering and allegations of “political bribery” and “blackmail.”

The Ankara Explosion: Chaos in Keçiören

The latest and most explosive defection occurred in Ankara’s Keçiören district, a high-population stronghold. Mayor Mesut Özarslan, who won the seat for the CHP in 2024, officially resigned from his party on Monday.

• Council Majority Shifts: Özarslan didn’t leave alone; seven municipal council members resigned alongside him. If they join the AKP or MHP, the CHP will lose its majority in the Keçiören council, shifting the balance of power to the People’s Alliance (25 seats against CHP’s 20).

• The “Vulgar Message” Dispute: Özarslan accused CHP Leader Özgür Özel of sending him a WhatsApp message containing “heavy insults” and vulgarity directed at his family.

• Özel’s Rebuttal: In a fiery group meeting, Özel denied insulting Özarslan’s family, reading the messages aloud to the press. Özel claimed he had summoned Özarslan three times to headquarters to answer to corruption allegations. “I told him if you are a thief, tell us now, we have no business with corruption. He swore on his children that he was innocent, then ran to the very people who filed criminal complaints against him,” Özel stated.

The “Aydın” Precedent and the Konya Wipeout

The Keçiören incident is part of a broader pattern of “transfers” orchestrated by the AKP:

1. Aydın: The first shockwave came when Özlem Çerçioğlu, the long-standing “unshakable” Mayor of Aydın, defected to the AKP. Her departure was clouded by rumors of corruption scandals involving her husband, which many analysts suggest were used as leverage to force the move.

2. Konya: In a ceremony led by President Erdoğan on January 26, 2026, six district mayors from the New Welfare Party (YRP) officially joined the AKP. This move effectively wiped out the YRP’s local governance presence in Konya, returning the entire province to AKP control.

3. Bolu and Beyond: Rumors are now circulating that Bolu Mayor Tanju Özcan may be next to follow. Reports suggest Özcan is increasingly dissatisfied with the CHP’s Kurdish policy, providing a convenient ideological cover for a potential shift.

Target: Mansur Yavaş

The strategic objective behind these moves appears to be the isolation of Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

• Quiet Lawsuits: Experts point out that two separate lawsuits against Yavaş are proceeding “silently” through the courts.

• The Ultimatum: Some political insiders suggest a message has been delivered to Yavaş: either resign from the CHP or face removal from office (Kayyum). The defection of Keçiören, a vital Ankara district, is seen as a move to weaken Yavaş’s base and administrative grip on the capital.

Analysis: Sovereignty vs. Political Survival

Atilla Bey, the narrative being pushed by the opposition is one of “political hostage-taking,” where mayors are forced to choose between loyalty to their party or the continued functioning of their municipalities. The AKP, meanwhile, frames this as a “homecoming” for those dissatisfied with the CHP’s direction.

By Atilla Yesilada