New Polls Shake Ankara: Bilal Erdoğan Lacks Voter Mandate as CHP and AKP Battle for Dominance

As Turkey enters February 2026, a wave of new opinion polls has ignited intense debate over the country’s political future. The data provides a dual-threat perspective for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP): a significant internal leadership crisis regarding “dynastic” succession and a narrowing gap in general election support that often sees the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) taking the lead.

The “Son” Problem: Voters Reject Bilal Erdoğan for Leadership

Speculation regarding who will succeed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has intensified, with names like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Selçuk Bayraktar, and the President’s son, Bilal Erdoğan, frequently mentioned. However, a recent study by Saros Research (conducted Jan 15–22, 2026, with 7,912 participants) reveals a crushing lack of support for the younger Erdoğan.

When asked if they would vote for the AKP if Bilal Erdoğan were at the helm:

• 87.5% – Definitely No

• 12.5% – Definitely Yes

This trend is consistent with earlier findings by Refleks Data & Research, which placed Bilal Erdoğan third (14.2%) in leadership preference, trailing far behind Hakan Fidan (33.4%) and former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu (32.5%). Analysts suggest that while Bilal Erdoğan has increased his public profile through high-profile rallies, the Turkish electorate remains highly skeptical of a family-based succession model.

General Election: A Statistical Deadlock

The race for Parliament has become a high-stakes “head-to-head” between the two political giants. While different firms report varying leaders, the margin of error has become the most important factor in Turkish politics.

Newer political entries, such as Yavuz Ağıralioğlu’s Anahtar Party (4.5%) and the nationalist Victory Party (4.3%), are proving to be “kingmakers,” holding the potential to shift the balance in a fragmented parliament.

Presidential Head-to-Heads: The Opposition Surge

Perhaps the most alarming data for the incumbent administration lies in the direct presidential match-ups. According to Saros Research, if an election were held today between the two most prominent figures, the results suggest a first-round victory for the opposition:

• Mansur Yavaş (Mayor of Ankara): 58.6%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 41.4%

Similarly, HBS Research (Feb 2026) shows Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu leading the President by nearly 6 points (52.9% to 47.1%) in a potential second-round scenario. MetroPOLL reports that a staggering 67.1% of voters now believe that economic prosperity is only possible through a change in government, a sentiment that has even penetrated 40% of the AKP-MHP voter base.

Summary: A Nation Demanding Change

With ASAL Research reporting that over 50% of the population now favors early elections, the “stability” narrative of the ruling alliance is under immense pressure. Whether it is the economic crisis or the uncertainty of the post-Erdoğan era, the 2026 polls indicate a Turkish public increasingly ready to turn the page.