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Morning Brief: Global Markets Rally on Iran Signals, BIST 100 Eyes 13,000 Threshold

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Easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have boosted global risk appetite, driving strong gains across equities. Borsa Istanbul is expected to follow the positive momentum, with the BIST 100 index testing critical resistance levels. However, investors remain cautious as key macro data and unresolved geopolitical risks continue to shape the outlook.

Global Risk Appetite Improves on Iran Developments

Global markets turned decisively positive after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested a potential de-escalation in the ongoing conflict.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war could end within two to three weeks, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated readiness to halt hostilities if attacks cease. These statements marked the first meaningful signs of a possible resolution.

As a result:

  • The S&P 500 surged 2.9%
  • The Nasdaq jumped 3.8%
  • Asian markets posted strong gains in early trading

Oil prices showed signs of easing, while gold continued its upward trend, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and lingering uncertainty.

BIST 100: Momentum Builds Above 12,800

Borsa Istanbul is expected to open higher, tracking global markets. The BIST 100 index has recently found support near 12,600 and is now attempting to build upward momentum.

Key technical levels:

  • 12,600: Major support and base formation level
  • 12,800: Critical resistance turned support
  • 13,000–13,100: Target resistance zone

A sustained move above 12,800 would strengthen the short-term outlook and pave the way for a test of the 13,000 psychological threshold.

Short-term trading positions may continue to be held above the 12,600 support level.

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Banking Stocks Could Lead the Rally

The banking sector is likely to play a decisive role in sustaining the upward move.

For the banking index:

  • 15,270: Key support
  • 15,800: Breakout level
  • 16,000–16,200: Next resistance zone

A recovery in banking stocks would reinforce the broader index rally.

Bond Market Sees Limited Relief

After a period of sustained pressure, Turkey’s bond market showed signs of stabilization.

  • Benchmark yield declined to 42.05%
  • 10-year yield eased to 33.52%

However, tight liquidity conditions and elevated funding costs—driven by the central bank’s policies—continue to weigh on the fixed income market.

Support levels are seen at:

  • 44% for benchmark yields
  • 35% for 10-year yields

Improved global sentiment may provide short-term support, but structural pressures remain.

FX Markets: Controlled Depreciation in TRY

The Turkish lira continues its gradual depreciation trend.

  • USD/TRY moved toward 44.50
  • 44.40 now acts as support
  • 44.60 is the next resistance level

The central bank’s FX interventions are helping to limit volatility, ensuring a controlled upward move in the exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has weakened below 100, supporting emerging market assets.

EUR/USD Gains on Weaker Dollar

The euro strengthened against the dollar as global risk appetite improved.

  • The pair moved above 1.15
  • 1.16 stands as the next resistance
  • 1.1670–1.17 are key upside targets

The 1.14 level remains a strong support, marking a short-term bottom formation.

Further gains will depend on continued geopolitical easing.

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Gold Extends Gains Amid Uncertainty

Gold prices remain supported by lingering geopolitical risks and expectations that central banks will remain cautious on tightening.

  • $4,600 now acts as support
  • $4,700–$4,735 are next targets

In local terms, gram gold continues to benefit from both global prices and FX dynamics:

  • TRY 6,560 support
  • TRY 6,700–6,750 target range

The short-term trend in gold remains upward.

Macro Calendar in Focus

Today’s data releases will be closely watched by markets:

  • Germany and Eurozone manufacturing PMI
  • U.S. ADP employment data
  • U.S. retail sales and ISM manufacturing

The most critical data point of the week will be:

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls (Friday)
  • Turkey’s inflation data

Turkey’s March inflation is expected at:

  • 2.5% monthly
  • 31.6% annually

These figures will be key for interest rate expectations and asset pricing.

Outlook: Optimism with Caution

The recent shift in geopolitical rhetoric has triggered a relief rally across global markets, benefiting equities and risk assets.

For Borsa Istanbul, this creates a more supportive backdrop, with the index poised to test higher levels.

However, key risks remain:

  • No formal ceasefire agreement yet
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted
  • Domestic macro imbalances persist

As such, the current rally should be viewed with cautious optimism.

In the short term:

  • Above 12,800: bullish bias
  • 13,000: key target
  • 12,600: critical support

Markets will continue to be driven by both geopolitical headlines and macroeconomic data.

Turkish brokerages

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