Market Compass: Where Is Borsa Istanbul Headed?
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Borsa Istanbul rebounded after a weak open driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, supported by improving risk sentiment tied to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. While global markets remain fragile, technical levels and sectoral divergence are shaping the near-term outlook.
BIST Recovers After Volatile Session
Borsa Istanbul’s BIST100 index closed higher despite opening under pressure following U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive remarks on Iran.
Trump warned of intensified attacks over the next two to three weeks, initially triggering selling pressure. However, sentiment improved later in the day as reports suggested a potential reopening of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The index closed 0.88% higher at 13,051, with daily trading volume reaching TRY 146.1 billion.
Global markets, by contrast, remained weak, with both European and U.S. equities ending the session mostly in negative territory. A late U.S. strike on Iranian infrastructure reignited geopolitical tensions.
Morning Brief: Markets in Easter Pause as Energy Shock Clouds Outlook
Sector Divergence: Banks Lead the Upside
Sectoral performance showed clear divergence:
- Banking stocks: +1.27% (led the rebound)
- Industrial stocks: +0.58%
- Holding companies: -0.55%
- Mining stocks: +3.46%
- Real estate (REITs): -1.08%
Petrochemical stocks started the day strong due to rising oil prices but reversed course later as crude prices eased on diplomatic developments involving Iran and Oman.
OPEC+ Meeting in Focus
According to Reuters, OPEC+ is expected to discuss a potential production increase at its upcoming meeting.
If confirmed, additional supply could put downward pressure on oil prices in the near term.
BIST30 Movers
Top gainers in the BIST30 index:
- ASTOR
- ASELS
- TRALT
Top losers:
- EREGL
- FROTO
- PETKM
FX and Commodities Snapshot
- USD/TRY: 44.56
- EUR/TRY: 51.50
- DXY: 100.04
- EUR/USD: 1.1533
Commodities:
- Brent crude: $106.58
- Gold (spot): $4,676
Global Developments: Fed and Trade Tensions
The IMF noted that the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut interest rates this year as it attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target by 2027.
Meanwhile, Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives, adding to global trade tensions.
Geopolitical Risk: Iran Pushes Back
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded sharply to U.S. threats of a ground operation:
“We are armed, prepared, and standing firm. Come—we are ready.”
The exchange underscores the risk of prolonged conflict.
Tesla Misses Expectations
Tesla reported 358,023 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, below market expectations of 372,160.
This marks a 14.4% decline from the previous quarter, sending the stock down 5.4% in after-hours trading.
Macro Watch: Sharp Decline in Reserves
Central bank data revealed a significant drop in reserves:
- Gross reserves: fell from $177.5 billion to $155.3 billion
- Net reserves: dropped from $57.4 billion to $22.3 billion
- Net reserves (ex-swaps): declined to $20.2 billion
This marks the lowest level since June 2025.
Capital Flows: Mixed Signals
- FX deposits increased by $2.21 billion
- Retail deposits rose by $1.83 billion
- Corporate deposits increased by $379 million
Foreign investors:
- Bought $137.1 million in equities
- Sold $1.3 billion in bonds
Technical Outlook
BIST100
The index found support at 12,800 and moved back above 13,000.
- Support: 12,800
- Resistance: 13,100 – 13,200 – 13,400
Holding above 12,800 keeps the short-term upward bias intact.
Bonds
- Benchmark yield: 41.12%
- 10-year yield: 32.72%
Suspension of central bank repo auctions and rising funding costs are weighing on the bond market.
USD/TRY
The upward trend continues, supported by a stronger dollar index.
- Support: 44.40
- Resistance: 44.60 – 44.70
EUR/USD
The pair failed to hold above 1.16 and pulled back.
- Support: 1.15
- Resistance: 1.16
Analyst View: 13,500 as Key Resistance
According to Yapı Kredi Investment:
- 12,600: key medium-term support
- 13,500: strong resistance
If 12,850 holds, the current rebound could extend toward 13,500.
Conclusion: Volatility to Persist
The broader outlook remains fragile:
- Geopolitical risks are elevated
- Oil prices remain volatile
- Macro indicators are weakening
Markets are likely to stay headline-driven and volatile, with selective opportunities rather than broad-based rallies.
By: WS37 News Desk
Source: Yapı Kredi Investment, Reuters, QNB Invest, TGF Invest
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