January Election Polls: CHP Leads Narrowly, AK Party Close Behind

The average of 14 nationwide opinion polls released in January shows a tight race between Türkiye’s two largest parties. The main opposition CHP leads with 32.5%, followed closely by the ruling AK Party at 31.7%, leaving a gap of just 0.8 percentage points. Additional surveys by Saros and PİAR — not included in the composite average — point to an even closer contest and highlight growing debate within the opposition over a potential presidential candidate.

Average of 14 Polls: A 0.8-Point Gap

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According to a composite average based on 14 polling companies, party support stands as follows:

• CHP: 32.5%

• AK Party: 31.7%

• DEM Party: 8.4%

• MHP: 7.0%

• İYİ Party: 5.2%

The difference between CHP and AK Party is calculated at just 0.8 percentage points, underscoring a highly competitive political environment.

Other Parties

• Victory Party (Zafer): 3.6%

• Anahtar Party (ANP): 3.1%

• New Welfare Party: 2.9%

• Felicity Party: 1.8%

• Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP): 1.2%

• Others: 2.6%

The average draws on surveys published in January by ALF, Ankara Creative Strategy, Areda Survey, ASAL, DİEN, GENAR, Gezici, Gündemar, İVEM, KONTAK, Optimar, Refleks Veri, SONAR and THEMIS.

What Do Excluded Polls Show?

Saros: A Dead Heat

Saros Araştırma conducted a January survey with 7,912 respondents, asking: “If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

Results:

• AK Party: 30.9%

• CHP: 30.5%

The findings indicate an almost exact tie between the two parties.

Compared with the 2024 local elections, where the AK Party secured 35.48% and CHP 37.76%, both parties appear to have lost ground — with CHP experiencing a sharper decline from its local-election peak.

Who Should Be the Opposition’s Presidential Candidate?

In the same Saros survey, respondents were asked who should represent the opposition in a presidential race.

• Mansur Yavaş: 32.8%

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 10.5%

• Selahattin Demirtaş: 7.9%

• Özgür Özel: 5.9%

The results suggest that Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş currently commands the strongest backing among opposition-leaning voters.

PİAR: CHP Gains 10 Points from Last General Election

PİAR Araştırma conducted its survey between January 2–5 across 26 provinces with 2,260 participants.

After distributing undecided voters, party support was as follows:

• CHP: 35.1%

• AK Party: 31.7%

• MHP: 9.0%

• DEM Party: 8.8%

• İYİ Party: 5.6%

• Victory Party: 4.2%

• New Welfare Party: 2.7%

• Others: 2.9%

According to PİAR, CHP’s support represents a nearly 10-point increase compared with its 25.33% share in the previous general election. Meanwhile, the AK Party remains below its last general election result of 35.61%.

Broader Trends

January polling highlights several key patterns:

• The gap between CHP and AK Party remains narrow.

• DEM Party consistently appears above the 7% parliamentary threshold.

• İYİ Party stabilizes around the 5–6% range.

• Economic and financial concerns continue to shape voter preferences.

Although methodologies, sample sizes and treatment of undecided voters differ across surveys, the broader picture suggests intense political competition and fragile balances.

With economic conditions, opposition leadership debates and early election calls likely to dominate the coming months, the race appears far from settled.

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