Iranian Missile Incidents Raise Questions Over Possible Tests of NATO Air Defences in Türkiye

Recent Iranian missile launches intercepted near Türkiye have sparked speculation among security analysts that Tehran may be probing NATO air defence systems protecting a key radar facility in southeastern Türkiye. The radar site in Malatya’s Kürecik district plays a central role in NATO’s missile defence architecture by tracking ballistic missiles headed toward Europe. While Iranian officials deny responsibility for the incidents, defence experts say the launches could have been designed to test NATO’s response capabilities.

Erdoğan’s Warning: “Hands Reaching for Türkiye Will Burn”

Missiles Intercepted Near Turkish Airspace

Two Iranian ballistic missiles heading toward Turkish territory were intercepted over the past week, raising concerns about the security of NATO installations in Türkiye.

According to defence sources and open-source reports, a missile fired last week toward Turkish airspace was intercepted by NATO air defence systems near Hatay, a southern province close to the Syrian border. The missile reportedly flew roughly 100 kilometres east of the Incirlik air base, which previously hosted U.S. military forces.

A second missile launched toward Türkiye earlier this week was also intercepted. In that case, U.S. Navy destroyers deployed in the region reportedly used RIM-161 Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors to shoot down the projectile.

Open-source reporting suggested that the missile might have been targeting Incirlik Air Base, though these claims have not been officially confirmed.

Possible Launch Sites Inside Iran

Preliminary NATO analysis suggests the missiles were launched east of Tehran toward Turkish territory.

Hurşit Dingil, an Ankara-based expert on Iran’s military capabilities at the Centre for Area Studies, said open-source modelling indicates the projectiles may have originated from the Revolutionary Guard’s missile facilities near Damghan, located in Iran’s Semnan province.

The Damghan complex reportedly includes underground missile infrastructure used by Iran’s ballistic missile forces. However, these details have not been independently verified.

Tehran Denies Responsibility

Iranian officials have denied launching missiles toward Türkiye.

Iran’s leadership suggested the incidents could instead have been false-flag operations carried out by Israel in order to provoke tensions between Ankara and Tehran.

Despite these denials, the issue prompted diplomatic engagement between the two countries.

According to sources in the Turkish foreign ministry, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, warning that ballistic missile launches toward Turkish territory would be unacceptable.

Possible Breakdown in Iran’s Command Structure

Some analysts believe the incidents could reflect operational disarray within Iran’s military command structure.

Iran’s leadership has faced significant disruptions following the killing of several senior officials during recent strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi recently acknowledged that some missile command centres had become “isolated”.

This has raised the possibility that certain missile launches may not have been centrally coordinated.

However, another theory circulating among security officials in Ankara suggests a more deliberate explanation.

Was NATO’s Radar Base the Real Target?

Some Turkish security insiders believe the missile launches may have been designed to test NATO’s air defence systems in preparation for a potential strike on the Kürecik radar base in Malatya province.

The facility hosts a TPY-2 X-band radar, a key component of NATO’s missile defence architecture under the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA).

The radar tracks ballistic missiles launched from Iran that could potentially be headed toward Europe.

According to defence analysts, the Kürecik installation plays a central role in NATO’s ability to intercept incoming missiles.

A 2019 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described the radar as a “keystone” of NATO’s missile defence network.

Without it, the report said, the ability of Aegis Ashore missile defence sites in Europe to detect and intercept incoming threats would be significantly reduced.

How the Radar Fits Into NATO’s Missile Defence

The TPY-2 radar in Türkiye is part of a system known as “engage on remote.”

This system integrates several elements:

• satellites tracking missile launches

• forward-based radar sensors closer to launch points

• interceptor systems deployed across Europe and the eastern Mediterranean

The radar provides highly detailed tracking data, allowing NATO systems to determine the speed, trajectory and potential destination of incoming ballistic missiles.

Because of Türkiye’s geographic location, analysts say it would be extremely difficult for a missile launched from Iran toward Europe to avoid detection by the Kürecik radar.

New Patriot Systems Deployed to Malatya

NATO’s recent decision to deploy additional Patriot missile defence systems to Malatya has reinforced speculation that the radar facility could be considered a potential target.

The systems reportedly transferred from NATO’s Ramstein base in Germany are believed to be PAC-3 Patriot batteries, which are designed specifically to intercept ballistic missiles.

Türkiye has hosted Spanish-operated Patriot batteries in southern provinces since 2015, but those systems were PAC-2 models, considered less capable against advanced ballistic threats.

Expanding Missile Defence Coverage

Retired Turkish Air Force intelligence chief Gürsel Tokmakoğlu said the new Patriot systems would extend NATO’s missile defence coverage across eastern Türkiye and the eastern Mediterranean.

These systems will also be integrated with NATO’s regional defence network, allowing them to operate alongside naval interceptors and other missile defence assets.

A defence source familiar with the deployments said U.S. destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean are currently responsible for intercepting long-range missile threats, while land-based Patriot systems will strengthen coverage over the rest of Türkiye.

Rising Regional Tensions

The missile incidents come amid growing regional tensions following Iran’s recent strikes against military radar, communications and air defence systems across the Middle East.

Reports indicate that Iranian operations have targeted installations in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including radar systems linked to U.S. missile defence infrastructure.

Analysts say these developments highlight the increasing importance of missile defence systems in the region.

For NATO, the radar facility in southeastern Türkiye remains a critical early-warning node protecting Europe from potential ballistic missile threats.

Source:  Ragip Soylu, MEE, excerpt only