Households Lose Faith in Disinflation: Sentiment Turns Grim in March

New data for March 2026 reveals a troubling disconnect between official narratives and the reality in the streets of Türkiye. While the 12-month inflation expectation dipped slightly to 49.8%, the proportion of citizens who believe inflation will actually fall has plummeted by nearly 5 percentage points in just 30 days.

The latest report by Dr. Gökhan Şahin Güneş of BETAM, based on Research Istanbul’s extensive monthly survey, highlights a “sticky” inflationary psychology taking root among Turkish consumers. Despite the current official inflation rate sitting at 31.5%, the public’s vision of the future remains anchored to a much higher reality.

1. The Death of Optimism: A 4.7-Point Drop

The most significant finding of the March report is the sharp erosion of hope. The percentage of participants who expect inflation to be lower a year from now than it is today fell from 34.4% in February to just 29.7% in March.

This nearly 5-point drop in optimism suggests that the “de-escalation” rhetoric often used by policymakers is losing its sting. Instead, households appear to be bracing for a prolonged period of high prices, a sentiment likely exacerbated by the recent geopolitical volatility in the region and the rebound of global oil prices toward $104 per barrel.

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2. Expectations Clustered Near 50%

While the average expectation for 12 months ahead saw a symbolic decrease of 1 point (moving from 50.8% to 49.8%), the distribution of these expectations shows a deep-seated belief in price instability:

• The Majority: 34% of respondents believe inflation will settle between 21% and 40%.

• The Skeptics: Roughly 31% expect a range of 41% to 60%.

• The Extreme Pessimists: Over 15% of the population predicts inflation will soar between 61% and 80%.

3. The Demographic Divide: Women and Seniors Lead the Anxiety

The survey reveals that the “inflation tax” is perceived very differently across various segments of Turkish society:

• Gender Gap: Women’s inflation expectations remain consistently higher than men’s. In March, women anticipated a rate of 52.5%, compared to 48% for men. Economists often attribute this “gender gap” to women’s higher frequency of interaction with daily grocery and household costs—sectors that have seen some of the most aggressive price hikes.

• Age Disparity: The 18–24 age group holds the most optimistic view at 46.8%. In contrast, those aged 65 and over are the most pessimistic at 54.3%. For retirees on fixed incomes, the fear of losing purchasing power is clearly reflected in these double-digit projections.

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4. Students vs. Civil Servants

Perhaps the most startling figure in the March data is the outlook of students, who reported an average inflation expectation of 58.9%. This nearly 60% projection underscores the severe impact of rising tuition, housing, and social costs on the younger generation.

On the other end of the spectrum, public sector employees (civil servants) held the lowest expectations at 44.4%. This relative “optimism” among state workers may be tied to the structured nature of their salary adjustments, which are more closely aligned with official targets.

5. Why It Matters: The “Expectation Trap”

For the Central Bank of Türkiye (TCMB), these figures are a warning sign. When nearly 70% of the population believes inflation will not fall, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consumers who expect higher prices tomorrow are more likely to pull forward their spending today, which in turn keeps demand—and prices—elevated.

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Expert Insight: The persistence of the 50% threshold in household minds is a formidable barrier to stabilization. With the “fall-expectant” group shrinking below 30%, the Turkish economy is entering a phase where the psychological battle against inflation may be just as difficult as the technical one.