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Export Prices Surge as Pusula Model Flags Sticky CPI: Cost Pressures Complicate Türkiye’s Disinflation Path

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Türkiye’s inflation outlook is facing renewed upstream pressure. While the Pusula TÜFE ARIMA model projects February CPI at 3.13% month-on-month, new data from TÜİK show export producer prices (YD-PPI) rising 4.06% in January, with annual inflation reaching 35.12%. A sharp spike in mining costs and strong increases in durable consumer goods suggest that cost-side risks remain elevated, potentially slowing the pace of disinflation in the months ahead.

Pusula TÜFE ARIMA: February CPI Seen at 3.13%

The Pusula TÜFE ARIMA model estimates February consumer inflation at 3.13% month-on-month, with a lower bound of 2.88% and an upper bound of 3.46%.

If realized, annual CPI could rise into the 30.6%–31.5% range, reflecting lingering service-sector rigidity and food price volatility before base effects begin to exert downward pressure in the spring.

Model comparisons across different index bases show broadly consistent results, reinforcing the expectation that inflation remains elevated but not accelerating uncontrollably.

Sectoral Drivers of CPI

Upward pressure is concentrated in:

  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages

  • Education

  • Various goods and services

  • Housing

  • Transportation

Limited downside contribution comes from clothing and certain regulated categories, but these are insufficient to offset broader price momentum.

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New Variable: Export Producer Prices Accelerate

Adding a new layer to the inflation outlook, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) reported a strong rise in the Yurt Dışı Üretici Fiyat Endeksi (YD-ÜFE) for January 2026.

Headline YD-PPI Figures

  • Monthly increase (January): 4.06%

  • Annual increase: 35.12%

  • 12-month average increase: 27.63%

The 4.06% monthly jump signals renewed acceleration in exporters’ input costs at the start of the year.

Mining Costs Spike Sharply

A sectoral breakdown reveals a striking divergence:

  • Mining and quarrying

    • Annual: 57.00%

    • Monthly: 11.32%

  • Manufacturing

    • Annual: 34.76%

The 11.32% monthly surge in mining suggests sharp volatility in raw materials, potentially linked to exchange rate movements or global commodity pricing.

Given that mining feeds into multiple industrial supply chains, this development may act as a leading indicator of further cost pressures downstream.

Main Industrial Groups: Consumer Goods Lead

By industrial grouping, consumer-oriented categories recorded the strongest annual increases:

Main Industrial Group Annual (%) Monthly (%)
Durable Consumer Goods 46.09 5.50
Non-Durable Consumer Goods 42.14 3.87
Capital Goods 35.06 4.20
Intermediate Goods 32.71 3.71
Energy 11.00 4.75

Durable consumer goods stand out with a 46.09% annual rise, indicating persistent pricing pressure in export-oriented finished products. Energy shows relatively contained annual growth, though its monthly increase remains notable.

Turkey’s Agricultural Producer Prices Jump 43pct Annually in January

What This Means for the CPI Outlook

The Pusula TÜFE ARIMA model anticipates that base effects beginning in March–April could reduce annual CPI by roughly 3 percentage points.

However, the January YD-PPI data introduce new uncertainties:

1. Cost Pass-Through Risk

Higher export producer prices may spill over into domestic pricing, particularly where supply chains overlap.

2. Exchange Rate Sensitivity

Export producer prices are closely linked to currency movements. Any renewed lira depreciation could reinforce upstream inflation.

3. Policy Implications

Persistent producer inflation constrains the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) room for aggressive rate cuts. Even if limited easing occurs, the data support a cautious approach.

A Delicate Disinflation Process

Türkiye’s disinflation trajectory now rests on three pillars:

  1. Base Effects – Statistical relief from last year’s high CPI prints.

  2. Demand Cooling – Sustained tight monetary conditions.

  3. Cost Stabilization – Containment of producer price volatility.

While the first two factors may support gradual improvement, the YD-PPI surge signals that cost stabilization is not yet secured.

The sharp increase in mining costs, combined with strong durable goods inflation, suggests that upstream pressure remains embedded in the production chain.

Pusula Invest, Turkstat, PA Turkey news desk

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