COMMENTARY: Fear Agricultural Shortages: The Invisible Front of the Iran War

By Okan Muderrisoglu, Daily Sabah

The world is currently facing a landscape so contradictory and complex that our entire system of values is being upended. We are witnessing the construction of a far less secure global order, where religious mysticism meets cold, hard realpolitik. This week, images of Evangelical pastors surrounding President Donald Trump in the White House for a “blessing ritual” serve as a chilling reminder of the ideological fervor driving this conflict. While the U.S. frames the Iranian regime as a radical religious threat, it is equally unsettling to see the “Zionist Christian” influence—an 80-million-strong voting bloc—shaping a war they view through a messianic lens.

Europe on High Alert: The Merz Doctrine

As religious narratives cloud the search for legitimacy, realpolitik is sending urgent distress signals. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been vocal in his warnings, stressing that the current clashes and the potential collapse of the Iranian regime are not merely regional issues. Merz emphasizes that this geopolitical instability requires profound planning from Europe regarding energy security, economic fallout, and the inevitable surge in migration.

Parallel to these warnings, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has noted that even if the war ended today, it would take months for the region’s energy production and supply systems to return to normal. Qatar’s decision to halt LNG exports carries risks that go far beyond heating homes in Berlin or powering factories in Seoul.

COMMENTARY: Turkey’s Economy in the Shadow of War

The Real Crisis: Oil is the Distraction, Food is the Target

While the global media remains fixated on oil prices, the true catastrophe is brewing in the agricultural sector. The reasons are stark and undeniable:

• The Urea Chokepoint: One-third of the world’s urea exports pass through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz.

• The Nitrogen Link: At least half of the world’s food production depends on nitrogen-based fertilizers, which require natural gas—specifically the gas currently trapped in the Gulf.

• Production Paralysis: Factories in Qatar and Iran have shuttered, transit has ceased, and the cost of nitrogen production has skyrocketed.

Turkey’s Strategic Management: Plans C and D

Turkey finds itself in a precarious position due to its heavy dependence on imported fertilizers and raw materials. While Agriculture Minister İbrahim Yumaklı has issued soothing statements, the reality on the ground is far more tense. The Agricultural Credit Cooperatives are currently under immense pressure, facing accusations of halting sales.

However, in a broken global supply chain, effective stock management is not “hoarding”—it is a necessity to prevent speculation and ensure that actual producers can access fertilizer when the planting season hits its peak. Every form of speculation must be prevented by law as prices continue their upward trajectory.

Beyond the Tilled Fields: Construction and Coordination

The crisis extends beyond the soil. Turkish construction firms, which have undertaken massive projects across the Gulf, are now facing an existential threat. There is an urgent need for a high-level coordination meeting under Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz to ensure that these sites remain operational and that Turkish workers are protected.

Revenue surge and spending discipline fuel fiscal recovery in February 2026

In this environment, traditional “Plan A” and “Plan B” strategies are insufficient. Whether in agriculture, international contracting, or energy security, Turkey must begin drafting Plans C and D. The world we knew is being reshaped by fire and faith; our survival depends on cold, calculated preparation.

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