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Can Erdoğan Win Again Despite Mounting Challenges?

Erdogan-election

Despite deep economic strains and political pressure, recent polling suggests President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may be regaining support, driven largely by security concerns linked to regional conflicts. As Türkiye navigates geopolitical tensions and domestic political confrontations, the balance between stability and economic hardship is once again shaping voter behavior ahead of the next انتخابات cycle.

Security Concerns Shift Voter Sentiment

Recent conversations with polling experts point to a notable trend: support for the ruling AKP is rising, with President Erdoğan once again ranking first in leadership approval ratings, followed by Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

The primary driver appears to be:

  • Heightened security concerns tied to regional conflicts
  • A shift among undecided voters back toward the ruling party

This trend has emerged despite ongoing economic difficulties, highlighting how security perceptions can override economic dissatisfaction in shaping electoral preferences.

Lessons From the 2023 Elections

A similar dynamic was observed in the May 2023 presidential election.

Following the devastating February 6 earthquake:

  • Criticism over the government’s initial response was widespread
  • Yet Erdoğan secured strong support in affected constituencies

In the 11 earthquake-hit provinces:

  • Erdoğan received over 4.1 million of 7.3 million votes in the runoff

This outcome reinforced a recurring pattern:

In times of crisis, voters tend to prioritize stability and security over economic grievances.

Regional War and Türkiye’s Position

The ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel has further reinforced this dynamic.

Türkiye’s ability to:

  • Remain outside direct military involvement
  • Position itself as a potential mediator

appears to have positively influenced public perception.

At the same time:

  • Strategic engagement with global actors
  • Türkiye’s growing military relevance within NATO

have elevated its geopolitical importance, particularly as transatlantic alliances face internal strain.

NATO Tensions and Strategic Realignment

Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump describing NATO as a “paper tiger” and suggesting a possible withdrawal have added another layer of uncertainty.

In this context:

  • Türkiye’s military capabilities have become more critical for Europe
  • New NATO-related initiatives and agreements are drawing attention

An upcoming NATO summit in Türkiye is expected to further underscore the country’s evolving strategic role.

Economic Realities Still a Major Constraint

Despite improving political momentum, the economic backdrop remains challenging.

Key issues include:

  • Rising cost of living
  • Increasing youth unemployment and uncertainty
  • Persistent concerns over rule of law

There is also a widespread perception, reflected in polling data, that:

  • Legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated

This continues to shape political polarization.

Narrow Margins in the Political Landscape

Polling trends since the March 2024 local elections suggest:

  • The opposition CHP maintained a lead in many surveys
  • However, the gap remained narrow—only a few percentage points

Even during weaker periods, AKP support rarely fell below 30% after undecided voters were distributed.

More recently:

  • The gap appears to be closing in favor of the AKP

The Kurdish Issue and Political Calculations

The government’s approach to what it describes as a “terror-free Türkiye” and renewed efforts toward a resolution process are also influencing the political landscape.

  • Messaging linked to Abdullah Öcalan
  • Emphasis on compatibility with republican principles

suggest a gradual but controlled political shift.

Opposition Under Pressure

The main opposition CHP faces significant challenges.

Since the March 2024 local elections:

  • Investigations have been launched into 20 CHP-run municipalities
  • A total of 21 mayors, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have been detained

This marks an unprecedented level of pressure on an opposition party in modern Turkish political history.

While some mayors have been released:

  • Most have not been reinstated

Özgür Özel’s Leadership Tested

CHP leader Özgür Özel is navigating intense political pressure from multiple fronts:

  • Government criticism
  • Internal and external opposition

Despite this, Özel has:

  • Maintained party unity
  • Organized nationwide rallies
  • Advocated policy alternatives, particularly on the economy

His leadership has helped prevent fragmentation within the opposition base during a difficult period.

Internal Challenges Within CHP

However, internal dynamics remain complex.

There are signs that:

  • Özel may be facing efforts to isolate his leadership
  • The party may require renewed motivation and cohesion

While not yet a structural crisis, these dynamics could influence the opposition’s effectiveness going forward.

A Broader Democratic Question

Beyond party politics, the broader issue concerns the nature of political competition in Türkiye.

Key concerns include:

  • Unequal media access
  • Use of state resources
  • Judicial pressure on opposition figures

This raises a fundamental question:

Can elections be considered fully competitive if conditions overwhelmingly favor the incumbent?

By Murat Sabuncu, t24.com.tr

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