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Borsa Istanbul Outlook: Geopolitical Risk, Inflation Data and Key Technical Levels in Focus

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Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have weakened global risk appetite, spilling over into Borsa Istanbul. While there is no sign of panic selling, profit-taking and a technical correction remain in play. Market strategists point to three decisive factors for the week ahead: the duration of the conflict, Turkey’s February inflation data, and critical technical thresholds on the BIST 100 index.

Geopolitical Pressure: Duration of War Is Key

According to Zeynel Balcı, Financial Columnist at Hürriyet, Iran remains at the top of the market agenda.

Balcı argues that the length and intensity of the conflict will determine the depth of market impact:

  • If hostilities drag on, capital may rotate out of risk assets and into safe havens.

  • If the confrontation remains limited to short-term air operations, the impact could stay contained.

  • A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude above the $78–80 resistance zone, opening the door toward $95–100 per barrel.

  • Gold could retest its previous peak near $5,598 per ounce, while silver may target the $100 level.

Balcı also notes that a recent Morgan Stanley report — which warned that Turkish equities may have diverged from macro fundamentals — added to selling pressure amid geopolitical stress. However, he cautions against treating foreign investment bank reports as infallible market compasses.

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Foreign Flows and Inflation in Focus

Despite recent volatility, foreign investors have been net buyers of Turkish equities for 12 consecutive weeks, according to data cited by Balcı:

  • $410 million in equity inflows last week

  • $991 million in bond outflows

This divergence suggests selective positioning rather than broad withdrawal.

Domestically, the key data release this week is February CPI:

  • Consensus: 2.9–3.0% monthly

  • Above 3%: Negative market reaction likely

  • Closer to 2%: Could support equities

A significant upside surprise could challenge expectations of gradual rate cuts by the Central Bank.

Technical Picture: 14,000 as the Critical Threshold

Burgan Investment Technical Analysis highlights that geopolitical risk has broadened selling pressure across sectors. However, the pullback has not turned into panic liquidation.

Key technical levels for BIST 100:

  • 14,000: Major psychological and technical threshold

  • 13,400–13,500: Strong support and potential stabilization zone

  • Below 13,400: Risk of deeper correction

Burgan Investment maintains a cautiously optimistic medium- to long-term stance, while acknowledging near-term volatility.

Futures Market View: Correction Within Trend

According to Yapı Kredi Investment VIOP Analysis, the recent decline in April futures appears to be developing within a correction pattern rather than a structural breakdown.

  • 15,750: First key support

  • 15,450: Trendline support

  • 16,450 and 16,800: Critical resistance levels

If support levels hold, the correction may remain limited in scope.

Ahlatcı Investment: Selling Bias May Continue

Ahlatcı Investment warns that the direct U.S. involvement in strikes against Iran over the weekend may extend selling pressure on Borsa Istanbul this week.

Key domestic and global catalysts:

  • February CPI data

  • Fourth-quarter corporate earnings

  • Halkbank court proceedings

  • Potential regulatory measures from Turkish authorities

Ahlatcı expects a volatile but predominantly downward bias while the conflict persists.

Integrated BIST 100 Scenario

Bringing together the four market perspectives:

Short-Term Risks

  • Prolonged conflict increases downside pressure

  • Oil above $90 could disrupt inflation expectations

  • CPI above 3% may delay rate-cut expectations

Stabilizing Factors

  • Continued foreign equity inflows

  • Controlled correction rather than panic

  • Strong support near 13,400–13,500

Positive Scenario

  • Conflict de-escalates quickly

  • Inflation prints below expectations

  • BIST 100 sustains above 14,000

Under such conditions, upside momentum could re-emerge.

Sectoral Implications

  • Airlines and tourism: Most vulnerable to geopolitical shocks

  • Defense industry: Relative resilience amid global tensions

  • Banking stocks: Viewed by Morgan Stanley as offering comparatively higher upside potential

Bottom Line

Borsa Istanbul is experiencing a loss of momentum, but not a disorderly unwind. Geopolitical developments remain the primary short-term driver, while inflation data could provide the next directional trigger.

The 13,400–14,000 range will likely define this week’s trading battlefield.

Contributors:
Zeynel Balcı (Hürriyet Finans)
Burgan Investment – Technical Analysis
Yapı Kredi Investment – VIOP Analysis
Ahlatcı Investment

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