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BIST 100 Under Pressure from Geopolitical Risks as Markets Watch Key Technical Levels

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Turkish financial markets remain volatile amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict. The BIST 100 index has retreated toward the 12,800 support level, while 13,000 stands out as the key resistance tied to the 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, bond yields continue to rise, the lira remains relatively stable thanks to central bank interventions, and global markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.

BIST 100 Tests Critical Support

The BIST 100 index has come under pressure in recent days due to escalating geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran conflict.

After losing 5.7% during the first two trading days of the week, the index tested the 12,800 support level before attempting a rebound toward 13,000. However, the index struggled to hold above this level and ended the session broadly flat.

The 13,000 level coincides with the 50-day moving average, making it a critical threshold for short-term direction.

Key technical levels include:

Resistance:

  • 13,100

  • 13,400

Support:

  • 12,900

  • 12,800

Holding above 13,000 would indicate the potential for a short-term recovery, while a break below this level could signal renewed downside pressure. The 12,800 level is particularly important as a possible short-term bottom formation zone.

Given the heightened geopolitical risks and market volatility, investors are advised to remain cautious.

Banking Stocks Face Additional Pressure

Turkish banking stocks have been under notable pressure following recent policy decisions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

The CBRT temporarily suspended its weekly repo auctions, effectively tightening lira liquidity in the market. As a result, banks increasingly rely on the central bank’s overnight lending facility, pushing the average funding cost higher.

The banking index declined 0.7% on the day and has fallen roughly 13% over the first three trading days of the week.

Technical levels for the banking index:

Resistance: 18,000
Support: 17,500

Markets have also begun to delay expectations for a rate cut at the CBRT’s March 12 monetary policy meeting.

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Bond Yields Continue to Rise

Domestic bond markets have remained under pressure amid declining risk appetite and tighter liquidity conditions.

Current levels:

  • Benchmark 2-year yield: 38.16%

  • 10-year government bond yield: 31.18%

Key technical thresholds:

  • 2-year yield: 39%

  • 10-year yield: 33%

Short-term yields could continue rising if selling pressure persists in local markets.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields, which had previously fallen on safe-haven demand, have recently rebounded as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished.

Türkiye’s five-year CDS risk premium stands near 246 basis points.

USD/TRY: 44 Remains a Psychological Threshold

The USD/TRY exchange rate has remained relatively stable, largely due to foreign exchange interventions by the CBRT.

So far, there has been no decisive upward breakout in the exchange rate.

Key levels:

Support: 43.90
Resistance: 44.00

The 44 level represents a key psychological threshold. A sustained break above this level could lead to further upward momentum.

EUR/USD Recovers Above 1.16

The EUR/USD pair had weakened amid rising geopolitical tensions and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, briefly falling to 1.1530.

However, the pair later recovered and moved back above 1.16.

Important levels:

Support:

  • 1.1580

  • 1.1530

Resistance:

  • 1.1670 (200-day moving average)

  • 1.17

Holding above 1.1530 may indicate the formation of a short-term bottom.

Gold Volatility Remains High

Precious metals experienced sharp volatility following the escalation of geopolitical tensions.

Gold initially surged above $5,400, driven by safe-haven demand. However, profit-taking and declining expectations for Fed rate cuts pushed prices back toward $5,000.

Key levels for gold:

Support: $5,000
Resistance: $5,250
Higher resistance: $5,300 and $5,400

Meanwhile, gram gold in Türkiye fell from around TRY 7,660 to below TRY 7,100.

Key levels:

Resistance:

  • TRY 7,400

  • TRY 7,600

Support:

  • TRY 7,060

Geopolitical Risks Continue to Drive Markets

Geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver of global markets.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that US forces have gained effective control over Iranian airspace and suggested that additional waves of military strikes could follow.

Türkiye’s Ministry of National Defense reported that a ballistic missile fired from Iran and heading toward Turkish airspace was intercepted by NATO missile defense systems over the Eastern Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, concerns persist over the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies passes.

Disruptions in the region are pushing energy prices higher, raising concerns about:

  • global inflation

  • economic growth risks

Future market direction will largely depend on whether the conflict escalates further or moves toward diplomatic resolution.

Key Events to Watch Today

  • The US Senate rejected a war powers resolution that would have required congressional approval for President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran

  • BIST 100 holding above 13,000 remains critical

  • Eurozone retail sales data will be released

  • US weekly jobless claims will be published

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak

Economic Calendar

13:00 – Eurozone
Retail Sales (Monthly)
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: −0.5%

16:30 – United States
Weekly Jobless Claims
Forecast: 242,000

20:00 – Eurozone
ECB President Lagarde speech

Turkish brokerage reports

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