Following coordinated Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran and the reported assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with senior commanders, the conflict has spread across the Gulf and beyond. Atilla Yesilada outlines three possible endgame scenarios for Iran, warning that prolonged fighting could send oil sharply higher and destabilize global markets — with serious consequences for Türkiye’s economic program.

Atilla Yesilada

A War No One Expected — and No One Can Predict

After what Yesilada calls “the biggest publicity campaign of the century,” Israel struck first, followed by the United States. Since then, reports have confirmed the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader and several top military officials.

The conflict quickly expanded to Gulf states and the Strait of Hormuz, with spillover risks reaching Cyprus, Iraq and Lebanon. While Türkiye may not be directly targeted, Yesilada argues the economic consequences could be severe.

As long as the war continues, he expects:

• Strong upside pressure on gold and oil

• Continued flight from risk assets

• Heightened volatility in global markets

The war, he notes, did not begin as many expected — and predicting its end is even harder. Policies in Tehran, Washington and Tel Aviv could shift abruptly. A newly elected Iranian leadership might abandon uranium enrichment, or Israel could push for a ceasefire under mounting civilian casualties.

Although the war was initiated by the U.S. and Israel, Yesilada argues its conclusion will ultimately be determined by Iran. Tehran has already rejected President Trump’s latest offer for talks.

Why Oil Matters for Türkiye

Yesilada stresses that every $10 increase in Brent crude adds roughly 0.5 percentage points to global inflation.

If Brent were to reach $100 per barrel and remain there for several months, Türkiye’s Economic Stabilization Program under Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek could be severely undermined.

With that in mind, he presents three Iran-focused scenarios.

Scenario 1: Over Before It Begins

Iran is currently governed by an interim council. If pragmatic and nationalist figures dominate the leadership transition, Tehran could formally abandon its nuclear program while maintaining its ballistic missile capacity under U.S.-Israeli or UN supervision.

In this outcome:

• Iran redirects resources to domestic stability

• Regional proxy forces lose funding and weaken

• Oil prices shed their geopolitical risk premium

• Brent returns to around $60 per barrel within weeks

This would be the “benign” scenario for global markets.

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Scenario 2: Eye for an Eye

In a more escalatory scenario, Iran widens the conflict:

• Strikes civilian infrastructure in Gulf monarchies

• Blocks tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

• Targets U.S. assets, including an attempted strike on the USS Abraham Lincoln

• Inflicts American and Israeli casualties

Yesilada suggests Iran may believe it can outlast the United States, calculating that U.S. naval forces could face ammunition constraints within weeks. Tehran may also rely on its stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones — potentially replenished via China or North Korea.

In this case, ending the regime might require:

• Systematic strikes on Iran’s energy production and distribution infrastructure

• A sustained embargo preventing Iranian oil from reaching global markets

Such measures would cut off Iran’s foreign currency revenues, potentially triggering domestic unrest or a coup by moderate factions seeking to end the war.

This scenario carries severe risks for energy markets and global inflation.

Scenario 3: Iran Turns into Syria

The worst-case scenario would see the regime maintain control in major urban centers while losing authority in provinces dominated by ethnic minorities — including Azeris, Kurds and Arabs.

External powers could arm these factions, leading to:

• A prolonged civil war

• Fragmentation of state authority

• Years of instability

In this case, Iran would cease to be a regional threat, focusing instead on preserving internal cohesion. Even if Iranian oil disappears from global markets, Yesilada argues that spare capacity from OPEC and other producers could eventually push Brent back toward $60 per barrel within months.

Political Limits to Escalation

Assigning probabilities depends largely on who emerges as Iran’s next leader and what strategic advisers shape policy.

Escalation may also be constrained by domestic politics:

• Continued U.S. and Israeli casualties could trigger political backlash.

• The U.S. Congress could move to restrict President Trump’s authority.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu, facing electoral risk, could opt for a unilateral ceasefire to limit civilian losses.

So, What Does Yesilada Expect?

After outlining the scenarios, Yesilada offers a blunt assessment:

If asked how long this conflict will last?

“Four to five weeks,” he says.