Ardan Zentürk: Why was Cyprus RAF base attacked?
ardan zenturk
Middle East War Likely to Be Long and Uncertain
Journalist Ardan Zentürk warns that the expanding conflict triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran carries a high risk of becoming a prolonged and region-wide war. He points to Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure, missile strikes targeting U.S. positions in Iraq, and the reported targeting of a British base in Cyprus as signs that the crisis is widening — potentially drawing Europe directly into the conflict.
“Iran Is Resisting More Strongly Than Expected”
Speaking on his YouTube channel, Zentürk said developments on the ground must be analyzed calmly and without emotional reactions.
Despite losing senior figures, including top commanders, he argued that Iran appears to retain significant military capacity. Footage circulating online shows large inventories of Shahed-type drones and ballistic missiles.
Zentürk also noted what he described as contradictory messaging from U.S. President Donald Trump, suggesting uncertainty within Washington. According to him, U.S. officials have floated the possibility that operations could last at least four weeks.
War Spreads Across the Gulf
Zentürk emphasized that the conflict has expanded beyond Iran’s borders.
He highlighted:
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Strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco energy facilities
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Attacks affecting Gulf states
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The targeting of a British military base in Cyprus
If confirmed, he said, the Cyprus development would mean Europe is no longer a bystander but directly entangled in the crisis.
He also pointed to rising airspace closures across the region, including heightened alert levels in Israel and other countries. The disruption, he added, is already affecting global air transportation networks.
Oil Shock and Financial Volatility
Zentürk stressed that risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices sharply higher.
Attacks on Gulf infrastructure have unsettled financial centers, he said, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid heightened uncertainty.
A sustained rise in oil prices, he warned, could trigger broader financial stress and market dislocation.
Türkiye’s Position: Balanced but Vigilant
According to Zentürk, Ankara has adopted a balanced diplomatic stance, condemning both attacks on Iran and strikes targeting Gulf countries.
He argued that Türkiye is unlikely to become a direct participant in the conflict, but acknowledged growing security concerns as hostilities inch closer to its borders.
Following reported strikes on a British base in Cyprus and U.S. positions in Iraq, some analysts have speculated that NATO-linked facilities in Türkiye — including the Kürecik Radar Station and Incirlik Air Base — could theoretically face risk.
False Claim About Incirlik Debunked
A widely circulated social media clip claiming an Iranian strike on Incirlik Air Base was later proven false.
The footage originated from a January 10 clash in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood, involving Syrian forces and YPG fighters. No official U.S., Turkish or NATO sources reported any attack on Incirlik near Adana.
The incident underscored the role of misinformation in an already volatile regional environment.
Missile Exchanges in Iraq
Iran has responded to U.S.-Israeli airstrikes with long-range missile attacks targeting U.S. military assets in allied countries.
Missiles were reportedly launched toward:
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The U.S. Consulate in Erbil
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Erbil International Airport
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U.S. military installations in northern Iraq
According to Kurdish counterterrorism authorities, coalition air defense systems intercepted and destroyed the incoming missiles and explosive-laden drones at approximately 13:25 local time. No casualties or material damage were reported.
Civilian Casualties in Sweida
One missile reportedly landed in Sweida, a Druze-controlled area in southern Syria. Initial reports indicate that five civilians were killed and several others injured after a projectile struck a residential area.
U.S.-Israel Strike Iran-Linked Militias in Iraq
Simultaneously, U.S. and Israeli aircraft carried out strikes against Iran-linked armed groups in Iraq.
In the first wave of operations, positions belonging to Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) in the Jurf al-Nasr area north of Babil province were targeted. Iraqi authorities reported two fatalities and three injuries following the strikes.
Tehran: “Only U.S. Bases Are Targets”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, stating that Tehran’s retaliatory actions would not target regional states or civilians.
Araghchi emphasized that Iran’s response falls under its “right to self-defense” and would be directed exclusively at U.S. military bases in the region.
Negotiations Suspended
Zentürk noted that Iran has formally suspended negotiations with the United States, signaling that a rapid de-escalation appears unlikely.
In his assessment, the current trajectory points toward a broader and potentially prolonged regional conflict, with rising energy prices, military escalation, and geopolitical realignment shaping the coming weeks.
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