Will Trump Push for Peace in Cyprus? Hopes Rise After Pro-Reunification Victory

The decisive electoral victory of a pro-reunification candidate in Northern Cyprus has fueled speculation that President Donald Trump may use his diplomatic leverage with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to broker a resolution to the island’s half-century-old division.

Electoral Shift Creates New Opening for Talks

On October 19, Tufan Erhurman, a pro-reunification figure, won the presidency of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), receiving 62.76% of the vote against the incumbent Ersin Tatar’s 35.81%. The high turnout saw nearly 65% of the 218,000 registered voters cast ballots, signaling strong public engagement on the issue.

The result immediately raised hopes for renewed peace talks, prompting congratulatory messages from Ankara, Athens, and the Greek Cypriot government.

• Erhurman’s Stance: The new president has called for the immediate resumption of formal talks aiming for a federal solution, a model rejected by the defeated Tatar, who had championed Turkey’s preferred “two-state solution.”
• US Signaling: Days after the election, the Trump administration nominated John Breslow as ambassador to the Republic of Cyprus, a move seen by many as a signal of greater US intent to resolve the Cyprus question.

The Trump-Erdoğan Dynamic and Potential Incentives

Cyprus has been divided since the Turkish invasion in 1974. The TRNC is recognized only by Ankara, while the Greek-Cypriot Republic of Cyprus joined the EU in 2004. The last UN-backed peace talks collapsed acrimoniously in 2017.

Some analysts suggest that the new political atmosphere in the north—combined with Trump’s transactional approach—could create an opening.

“Trump could offer Ankara what the UN never could, such as increased co-operation on defence or trade and energy deals with European support, in exchange for the withdrawal of Turkish troops and a renewed power-sharing plan on the island,” noted the conservative Washington Examiner.

This prospect is boosted by the close personal relationship between Trump and Erdoğan. Following a meeting on September 25, Turkish Cypriot sources noted a “softened atmosphere” in the northern Cyprus election campaign, with a noticeable decline in Turkish interference. Trump recently referred to Erdoğan as “one of the most powerful in the world” and a “reliable ally.”

Political Challenges and Energy Stakes

While the new Turkish Cypriot leadership and the Greek Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides have both expressed readiness to resume negotiations, significant political headwinds remain:

• Turkish Nationalist Opposition: A key ally of President Erdoğan, Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahçeli, publicly dismissed calls for a federal solution, urging Turkish Cypriots to join Turkey—remarks that were widely condemned in northern Cyprus.
• Turkish Opposition Support: Conversely, Ozgur Ozel, head of Turkey’s main opposition party (CHP), welcomed Erhurman’s victory.
• EU and Maritime Disputes: The Greek Cypriot government has ongoing disputes with Ankara over maritime boundaries and energy connections. The Republic of Cyprus will also assume the rotating presidency of the EU in January, which could be used as a platform to pressure Ankara.

A peace deal could unlock tremendous economic potential for the whole island. It would pave the way to exploiting vast natural gas reserves off the southern coast and facilitate an electricity cable project connecting Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. The lack of a settlement has cost the island over €20 billion in lost economic potential. Furthermore, a peace accord could revive Northern Cyprus’s struggling economy, which has been plagued by a growing “dark” economy and issues with student migration fraud.

Erhurman’s victory represents a renewed mandate for peace, offering both a challenge to Ankara’s two-state rhetoric and a potential opportunity for Turkey to signal constructive engagement with Europe—a move that could perfectly align with a Trump-led diplomatic push.

Source:  Tomorrow’s Affairs, Washington Examiner

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