What Could Solving the S-400 Dispute Unlock in Türkiye–U.S. Relations?

Summary:

Türkiye returning its Russian-made S-400 air defence systems could open a new chapter in long-strained defence ties with the United States. Such a move may pave the way for Türkiye’s potential return to the F-35 fighter jet programme and unlock billions of dollars in defence industry opportunities, while also easing broader financial and political frictions between the two NATO allies.

How the S-400 Crisis Strained Bilateral Ties

Relations between the United States and Türkiye deteriorated sharply after Ankara decided in 2017 to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defence system. The dispute deepened in 2019 when Türkiye took delivery of the system, prompting Washington to remove the country from the F-35 stealth fighter programme and impose sanctions targeting Türkiye’s defence sector.

The United States argued that deploying the S-400 alongside NATO systems posed an intelligence risk to the F-35’s sensitive technologies. As a result, Türkiye was excluded from the programme despite plans to acquire 100 aircraft. Six F-35 jets that had already been produced for Türkiye were never delivered and were placed in storage. In addition, Turkish defence firms that had been manufacturing more than 900 components for the F-35 were forced to halt their participation.

Why Ankara Turned to the S-400

Türkiye has repeatedly cited urgent security concerns as the driving force behind its decision. Following the failed coup attempt in 2016, during which F-16 fighter jets were used over Ankara, air defence became a strategic priority. Negotiations with the United States over the Patriot missile system collapsed due to disagreements over technology transfer and joint production, pushing Ankara toward an agreement with Russia on the S-400.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has since floated the possibility of returning the S-400 systems to Russia and seeking reimbursement for the billions of dollars paid, as part of an effort to resolve the standoff with Washington.

Could Türkiye Rejoin the F-35 Programme?

According to Bloomberg, resolving the S-400 dispute could trigger a broader normalization in Türkiye–U.S. relations, extending beyond defence into sectors such as energy and finance. Since 2019, U.S. restrictions have limited Türkiye’s defence procurement agency’s access to American financial systems and advanced military technologies.

If these restrictions are lifted, the ten Turkish companies removed from the F-35 supply chain could potentially rejoin the programme. Industry estimates suggest Turkish firms could generate up to $12 billion in production value by supplying parts for the F-35.

Deeper Defence Cooperation at Stake

Beyond the F-35, Ankara is seeking closer cooperation with the United States on aircraft engines used in both existing and indigenous programmes. These include the F110 engines used in Türkiye’s F-16 fleet and the domestically developed Kaan fighter jet, as well as the F404 engines powering the Hürjet advanced trainer aircraft.

Expanded collaboration in these areas could significantly enhance Türkiye’s technological capabilities and integration into Western defence supply chains.

Broader Implications for Bilateral Relations

Analysts note that resolving the S-400 issue could improve investor sentiment and ease financial constraints by reopening access to international funding channels. It could also strengthen Türkiye’s position within NATO and revive joint projects with Western defence companies.

However, uncertainties remain. Any move to return or deactivate the S-400 systems would have implications for Türkiye’s relations with Russia, particularly given existing energy ties and regional geopolitical dynamics. The stance of the U.S. Congress, which has taken a hard line on sanctions, will also be critical in determining the scope and speed of any normalization.

A Path to Reset?

While significant political and strategic hurdles remain, many observers believe that settling the S-400 dispute could unlock long-closed doors in Türkiye–U.S. relations. A potential return to the F-35 programme, renewed defence industry cooperation and improved financial ties stand out as the most tangible gains—provided both sides show the political will to move forward.

Source: Ekonomim

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