Weekly CBRT Data: Reserves, Deposits, and Capital Flows

Net Reserves and Analytical Balance Sheet

In the week of September 26, a USD 3 billion increase in net reserves excluding swaps (USD 0.5 billion increase adjusted for gold prices), a USD 416 million purchase of GDDS by non-residents, and a USD 1.3 billion decline in FX deposits stood out. Additionally, according to the CBRT’s Analytical Balance Sheet, as of October 1 (covering the first three business days of the week), we estimate an increase of approximately USD 1.8 billion in net reserves excluding swaps (USD 1 billion decline adjusted for gold prices).

FX Deposits

Parity-adjusted FX deposits, following a USD 5.5 billion increase over the past three weeks, declined by more than USD 1.3 billion with USD 838 million in sales from individuals and USD 501 million in sales from corporates. Since the beginning of the year, FX deposits have increased by a total of USD 16.2 billion.

FX-Protected Deposits (KKM)

FX-protected deposit (KKM) balances decreased by TRY 27.9 billion (USD 0.7 billion) on a weekly basis, falling to TRY 292.8 billion. The cumulative unwinding from the peak reached in August 2023 has now exceeded TRY 3.1 trillion (USD 129.8 billion). The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits stood at 39.5%, compared with a peak of 68.4% in August 2023.

TRY Deposits and FX Loans

TRY deposits increased by TRY 223 billion during the week, rising to approximately TRY 15.4 trillion. FX loans decreased by USD 0.2 billion on a weekly basis. Since the end of March 2024, they have increased by 44% (USD 59.7 billion), reaching USD 194.4 billion.

Loan Growth Trends

Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans increased from 20.4% to 21.8%, while consumer loans rose from 40.5% to 41.7%.

Non-Resident Flows

In the week ending September 26, non-residents purchased around USD 416 million in GDDS, raising the stock to about USD 15.6 billion. Between mid-March and the end of April, GDDS saw a total outflow of USD 9.3 billion, while from early May onwards, there has been an inflow of over USD 6.7 billion. In equities, there was a net inflow of USD 159 million, increasing the stock to USD 33.8 billion. After three weeks of total USD 828 million outflows, this trend reversed over the past two weeks. On the Eurobond front, there was a net inflow of about USD 2.7 billion, bringing the stock to approximately USD 81 billion.

Gross and Net Reserves

Gross international reserves rose from USD 178.9 billion to around USD 183 billion, a weekly increase of USD 4.1 billion. Net reserves increased from USD 70.4 billion to about USD 72.7 billion, a rise of USD 2.3 billion. Net reserves excluding swaps increased by USD 3 billion to USD 56 billion. It is worth noting that the increase in gold prices generated a positive valuation effect of USD 2.5 billion on the CBRT’s reserves last week. Accordingly, excluding this gold-price impact, the increase in net reserves ex-swaps would amount to USD 0.5 billion. For reference, the lowest point of net reserves ex-swaps was USD -65.5 billion at end-March 2024, while the peak was USD 71 billion on February 14, 2025.

Early October Developments

Based on the CBRT’s Analytical Balance Sheet, as of October 1 (the first three business days of this week), we estimate that gross reserves increased by USD 2.9 billion, net reserves by USD 1.8 billion, and net reserves ex-swaps by approximately USD 1.8 billion. During this period, the gold-price effect amounted to around USD 2.8 billion. The cumulative positive contribution of higher gold prices to CBRT reserves over the past six weeks has now reached approximately USD 13.8 billion.

Mutual Funds and Dollarization

The size of the Money Market Fund (MMF) increased by about TRY 38 billion during the week of September 26, exceeding TRY 1.2 trillion. Under the Free Umbrella Fund, MMFs decreased by roughly TRY 40 billion during the week, falling to about TRY 1.1 trillion. The total active size of FX-denominated mutual funds rose by USD 1.8 billion to USD 71.4 billion (compared with USD 25 billion at the beginning of 2024). Including investment funds, the dollarization ratio declined slightly from 42.3% to 42.2% in the week of September 26. This ratio had stood at around 59% at the beginning of 2024.