ÜNLÜ & Co Forecasts ₺91 Billion Bank Profit as Non-Financial Firms Stay Cautious

Turkey’s leading investment and asset management firm ÜNLÜ & Co has released its 2025 Q3 Financial Expectations Report, revealing a strong outlook for the banking sector while noting that non-financial corporations remain cautious amid macroeconomic challenges.

Banking Sector Shines with ₺91 Billion Net Profit

According to the report, total net profit among the banks analyzed is expected to reach ₺91 billion in the third quarter—representing a 64% increase year-on-year and a 5% rise quarter-on-quarter.

The main driver of profitability is the improvement in the Turkish lira loan-to-deposit spread, which has expanded net interest margins by 45 basis points. Among the standout performers are Halkbank, Yapı Kredi, and Akbank, all benefiting from stronger credit growth and efficient balance sheet management.

“The recovery in the loan-deposit spread remains a core factor supporting banking profitability,” said Erol Danış, Head of Research at ÜNLÜ & Co. “We’re now observing significant performance divergence between sectors—making data-driven, company-specific analysis crucial for investors.”

Non-Financial Companies Stay on Guard

While banks show strength, the picture for non-financial companies remains mixed. The report forecasts an 11% annual decline in net profits across the segment, yet a 40% quarterly increase, signaling short-term recovery potential.

High financing costs, sluggish domestic demand, and soft external markets continue to weigh on margins. However, ÜNLÜ & Co notes that companies managing costs efficiently—particularly those in energy and healthcare—are displaying resilience.

“The divergence in profitability across sectors underscores a need for investors to act selectively,” Danış emphasized. “Companies with dollar-based revenues, export orientation, or strong cost discipline will likely outperform in the near term.”

Sector Highlights: Refinery, Energy, and Healthcare Outperform

ÜNLÜ & Co’s sectoral breakdown reveals stark contrasts across industries:

• Tüpraş leads with robust refinery margins and high capacity utilization.

• Aygaz demonstrates resilience thanks to strong LPG margins and affiliate contributions.

• Hitit and MLP Sağlık emerge as positive outliers—Hitit with double-digit dollar-based growth, and MLP Sağlık with efficient cost control and operational agility.

• Retail benefits from larger basket sizes and stable wage growth, sustaining its profitability.

Conversely, industrial heavyweights such as Petkim and Erdemir face operational pressures, including elevated input costs and weaker export demand. In aviation, Turkish Airlines (THY) and Pegasus are expected to report margin contraction due to higher operating expenses and constrained ticket pricing flexibility.

Balanced but Cautious Outlook

Deputy CEO Mahmut Kayacık added that the broader investment landscape remains cautious, with companies prioritizing liquidity preservation and operational efficiency. The report also stresses that investors are entering a period where sector-specific and data-driven strategies will be key to identifying opportunities amid uncertainty.

ÜNLÜ & Co concludes that despite macroeconomic headwinds, selectivity and strategic positioning can help investors capture value in sectors that demonstrate pricing power, cost flexibility, and export exposure.