Türkiye’s Manufacturing Export Climate Index Dips to 50.8 in April, Signaling Slower Growth

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) released the April 2025 results of its Türkiye Manufacturing Sector Export Climate Index, which monitors the health of demand in Türkiye’s key export markets. The index fell slightly from 51.5 in March to 50.8 in April, indicating a moderate improvement in external demand, though at the lowest pace in the last five months.

Any reading above 50.0 signals improvement, while values below 50 indicate deterioration. Despite the dip, the positive trend that began in January 2024 remains intact.

German and UK Activity Contracts Again, U.S. Growth Slows

Germany, which accounts for 8% of Türkiye’s exports, saw production decline in April after a brief uptick in March—its first in ten months. The UK also recorded a drop in economic activity for the first time in over a year.

While the U.S., Türkiye’s second-largest export market, continued to expand in early Q2, growth was modest, marking its slowest pace since September 2023.

Mixed Signals Across Europe: Italy Rises, France and Russia Decline

In Europe, performance varied significantly. While Italy recorded its third consecutive monthly growth, with April marking the strongest expansion in a year, countries like France, Romania, and Russia saw declines in output. Spain and the Netherlands also showed signs of slowing growth, reflecting broader fragility in regional demand.

Middle East Leads Global Growth in Export Demand

The Middle East remained the main driver of global export growth. In the UAE, non-oil activity continued to surge, maintaining its March momentum. Saudi Arabia posted the fastest growth among all countries monitored. Kuwait also showed strong improvement, while Qatar’s activity ticked up modestly. In contrast, Lebanon and Egypt recorded output declines.

Emerging Market Pressures: Canada, Mexico, Southeast Asia Struggle

April brought notable economic contractions in Canada and Mexico, both influenced by tariff-related pressures. Meanwhile, Vietnam and Indonesia saw clear slowdowns, while Myanmar’s production dipped in the aftermath of a late-March earthquake.

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