Türkiye’s Generative AI Potential: $60 Billion in Growth, 59% of Jobs Impacted
Ai
A comprehensive new report titled “The Economic Potential of Artificial Intelligence in Türkiye,” authored by Professor Altan Çakır with support from Google and Implement Consulting, projects that Türkiye could add 5% — approximately $50–60 billion — to its annual GDP over the next decade by effectively leveraging generative AI technologies.
The report, published in May 2024, emphasizes that worker productivity gains, time reallocation, and expansion into new value-added activities could drive this additional economic growth. However, the study also highlights significant challenges for the labor market, requiring urgent policy attention.
Labor Market Forecast: Productivity Gains Without Net Job Loss — If Managed Well
The report outlines that among Türkiye’s 31 million job positions:
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41% (13 million jobs) will remain unaffected by automation.
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55% (17 million jobs) will experience productivity gains thanks to AI.
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4% (around 1 million jobs) are at risk of partial or full job transformation.
Importantly, the report predicts no net employment loss—assuming that freed-up work hours are reinvested into other value-creating activities. Service sector jobs are expected to experience the largest productivity enhancements, accounting for 70% of the positions impacted.
Key Risks: Automation Bias and Wage Compression
Despite the optimistic projections, the report warns of growing international skepticism around AI’s labor market effects. Unlike past technological shifts, AI may replace jobs faster than new roles are created—or newly created jobs may themselves be automated rapidly.
Additionally, current employer trends favor automation for profit maximization, rather than augmenting human labor, particularly at the expense of low- and medium-skilled workers. Without active policy intervention, job reductions and wage declines could materialize, especially among white-collar occupations.
4 Essential Steps for a Sustainable AI-Driven Labor Market
To mitigate potential negative outcomes, the report calls for four urgent policy actions:
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Continuous Workforce Reskilling:
Launch large-scale training initiatives, especially targeting low- and medium-skilled workers, through university extension programs and in-service corporate training. -
Universal AI Literacy in Education:
Embed AI-focused coursework into all university programs and rapidly train teachers and academics to improve digital competencies across disciplines. -
Strengthen Vocational Education:
Expand vocational programs with integrated AI skill development, enhancing school-to-work transitions and building resilience against automation risks. -
Create Skills Development Platforms:
Establish agile, short-term training systems that allow workers to update or pivot their skills as AI technologies continue reshaping the job market.
Vocational Education: Türkiye’s Hidden Advantage
The report points to vocational education as a critical buffer against widespread automation. With 44% of unaffected jobs linked to vocational fields, expanding AI competencies in these programs could offer young people a robust path into future-proof careers.
The Urgency of Lifelong Learning in the AI Era
As AI redefines required skills across industries, the report stresses that lifelong learning is no longer optional. Without proactive adaptation, productivity gains could deepen social inequality instead of delivering the promised economic boost.