Türkiye’s Fertility Rate Declines to 1.48 in 2024, Well Below Replacement Level
Newborn rate in Turkey
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Türkiye recorded 937,559 live births in 2024, with 51.4% male and 48.6% female infants. However, behind this number lies a critical demographic trend: the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.48 children per woman, marking a continued decline from 2.38 in 2001.
The TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (ages 15–49). The current rate remains well below the population replacement threshold of 2.10, which has not been met in Türkiye for the past eight consecutive years.
Only Şanlıurfa Maintains Fertility Rate Above Three Children
In 2024, Şanlıurfa recorded the highest fertility rate nationwide at 3.28 children per woman, followed by Şırnak (2.62) and Mardin (2.32).
At the other end of the spectrum, Bartın and Eskişehir reported the lowest fertility rates at 1.12, followed by Zonguldak (1.15), Ankara (1.15), and İzmir (1.17)—all significantly below the replacement level.
Fertility Below Replacement in 71 of 81 Provinces
Back in 2017, 57 provinces had fertility rates below 2.10. That number has now risen to 71 provinces in 2024, highlighting the widespread demographic slowdown across the country.
Even more concerning, the number of provinces with fertility rates below 1.50 has jumped from 4 in 2017 to 55 in 2024. Meanwhile, Şanlıurfa stands as the only province where the fertility rate remains above three children per woman.
Implications for Türkiye’s Demographic Future
These figures raise alarms about Türkiye’s population sustainability, labor force replacement, and aging demographics. The downward trend suggests a future that may bring economic and social challenges if not addressed through family support policies and reproductive health strategies.
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