Türkiye’s Central Bank Warns of Inflation Pressures, Commits to Maintaining Firm Monetary Stance
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The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) released the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Summary, highlighting a reinforced commitment to tight monetary policy in response to increased financial volatility observed after March 19.
The summary stated that the recent market fluctuations pose significant risks to the inflation outlook, prompting the Central Bank to adopt additional tightening measures to safeguard its 5% medium-term inflation target.
“The Committee will determine policy decisions to ensure monetary and financial conditions that will lower the underlying trend of inflation and achieve the 5% target in the medium term, while also considering the lagged effects of past tightening,” the report emphasized.
April Sees Upward Shift in Inflation Dynamics
The CBRT noted that April saw an upward shift in the main trend of inflation, particularly driven by core goods inflation, which is expected to rise slightly due to financial market developments. Meanwhile, service inflation is projected to remain relatively stable.
“Core goods inflation will experience a temporary uptick in April, while service inflation will exhibit a relatively flat course,” the summary stated.
Agricultural Risks Loom: Frost Impacts and Food Prices Under Scrutiny
A separate warning in the report addressed agricultural risks. The early-April frost incidents could push fresh fruit and vegetable prices higher in the coming months, creating additional upward pressure on food inflation.
Additionally, price increases in the unprocessed food group—especially driven by red meat and egg prices—continue to pose persistent inflationary risks.
“The surge in red meat and egg prices further exacerbates food inflation pressures,” CBRT highlighted.
Outlook: Tight Stance to Continue Until Inflation Path Stabilizes
The CBRT reaffirmed that its monetary policy will remain firm and vigilant, adjusting financial conditions as necessary to anchor inflation expectations and mitigate volatility spillovers. The focus will be on ensuring that inflation gradually converges to the official 5% target, despite short-term headwinds.