Türkiye’s Central Bank Publishes Sectoral Inflation Outlook for April 2025

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has released its Sectoral Inflation Expectations Report for April 2025, showing a sharp divergence in inflation forecasts across households, real sector participants, and financial markets.

According to the report, household inflation expectations remained unchanged at 59.3% for the 12-month forward outlook—identical to the previous month’s figure. However, expectations among market participants and the real sector saw a measurable increase.

Market Forecast Rises by 1 Point, Real Sector Also Up

• Market participants’ 12-month inflation forecast rose 1.0 percentage point to 25.6%

• Real sector expectations increased 0.6 percentage points to 41.7%

• Household expectations stayed fixed at 59.3%

These figures were compiled through multiple coordinated surveys, including:

• Market Participants Survey

• Economic Tendency Survey

• Consumer Tendency Survey, conducted in cooperation with TurkStat

The divergence reflects differing perceptions of inflation risks, with households maintaining significantly higher expectations compared to industry and financial sector actors.

Outlook: Confidence Gap Highlights Inflation Anchoring Challenge

While inflation expectations remain relatively anchored for financial professionals, the persistently elevated household forecast underscores a gap in monetary policy credibility and reflects broader economic anxiety at the consumer level.

As Türkiye continues efforts to implement tight monetary policy, the challenge lies in aligning expectations across sectors to support disinflation and macroeconomic stability.