Skip to content
News from Turkey

Türkiye’s Annual Inflation Falls to 37.86% in April 2025, Below Market Expectations

inflation

Türkiye’s consumer inflation slowed to 37.86% year-over-year in April 2025, slightly below market expectations, signaling tentative progress in the country’s disinflation efforts despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the monthly CPI increase stood at 3.00%, compared to analysts’ forecast of 3.19%, as reported by ForInvest Haber. The annual inflation rate also came in just under the expected 38.03%.

Key CPI Highlights – April 2025 (YoY Changes):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): +37.86%

  • CPI Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, Tobacco, Gold (Core Inflation, B Index): +36.81%

  • 12-Month Moving Average CPI: +48.73%

  • CPI since Dec 2024: +13.36%

Food and Housing Lead the Surge

Among main expenditure groups, housing costs soared by 74.07%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages at 36.09%, and transportation at 22.76% year-over-year. Together, these three categories accounted for a significant portion of the overall inflation:

  • Housing contribution: +9.98 percentage points

  • Food contribution: +9.21 percentage points

  • Transport contribution: +3.84 percentage points

On a monthly basis:

  • Housing rose 4.66%

  • Transportation 3.80%

  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages 2.01%

Core Inflation Rises 3.10% in April

The core CPI (B index), which excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcohol, tobacco, and gold, increased 3.10% from March and 36.81% annually—indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures even as headline inflation eases.

Outlook: End-2025 CPI Expected at 31.29%

Economists project Türkiye’s end-2025 CPI at 31.29%, with further disinflation expected into 2026, where year-end inflation is forecast to fall to 21.50%, assuming continued tight monetary policy and price stability efforts.

Related articles