Türkiye–US Relations at a Crossroads Ahead of Trump’s Visit

Ankara is once again at the heart of international attention as former U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for a visit to Türkiye in May 2025, a move officially confirmed by the White House. The upcoming trip has reignited global interest in the future of Turkish-American relations, which remain in flux during one of the most volatile periods in their shared history.

The once-strategic alliance between the United States and Türkiye now oscillates between diplomatic strain and tentative engagement. As Türkiye recalibrates its foreign policy and broadens ties with non-Western powers, Washington is reassessing Ankara’s role within the NATO alliance and the broader Middle East strategy.

Congress Signals Shift in Perception of Türkiye

The evolving view from Capitol Hill became unmistakably clear with a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress seeking to reclassify Türkiye from a “European” to a “Middle Eastern” country in State Department records. More than a symbolic gesture, the move reflects deepening frustration with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s foreign policy direction.

“Türkiye today harbors Hamas operatives, supports Russia’s war machine, and undermines NATO unity while demanding the privileges of a Western ally,” stated Representatives Brad Schneider and Gus Bilirakis, delivering a blunt assessment of Ankara’s current geopolitical posture.

This shift in tone underscores American concerns over Türkiye’s defense ties with Russia, rapprochement with Iran, and ambiguous stance on the war in Ukraine—all seen as diverging from traditional Western alignment.

Balancing Acts and Strategic Calculations

Despite increasing congressional criticism, Erdoğan’s geopolitical pragmatism remains intact. His administration has continued outreach to the West, as illustrated by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s visit to Washington, where he emphasized Türkiye’s desire to strengthen cooperation in defense, energy, space, and AI.

Erdoğan understands that Türkiye’s regional influence—from Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean—depends on sustaining dialogue with Washington. He has long played the role of balancer, leveraging Ankara’s unique position to engage with both adversaries and allies, sometimes simultaneously.

Trump and Erdoğan: A Renewed Diplomatic Channel?

The rekindling of ties between Trump and Erdoğan comes at a critical juncture. Trump has called Erdoğan a “strong and smart leader”, acknowledging Türkiye’s pivotal role in the Syrian conflict and broader Middle Eastern security architecture.

If Türkiye is added to Trump’s 2025 Middle East tour, it would signal a major diplomatic shift—suggesting Washington’s renewed interest in leveraging Ankara’s influence on regional stability, particularly in Syria and Gaza.

Gaza, Iran, and Russia: The Price of Partnership

While any rapprochement is likely to come with demands, the U.S. seeks specific guarantees: preventing Syria from becoming a sanctuary for extremist groups, limiting Iran’s reach, and ensuring that Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow does not undercut Israeli strategic interests.

At the center of these concerns lies the Gaza conflict. With Israel’s campaign ongoing, Erdoğan’s open support for the Palestinian cause and ties with Hamas elevate Türkiye’s regional leverage. Despite Trump’s pro-Israel stance, his administration understands that Türkiye can serve as an indirect channel in future negotiations regarding Gaza and Hamas.

Diverging Voices in Washington

The split between the U.S. Congress and the White House on Türkiye reflects a broader divergence in strategy. While lawmakers adopt a confrontational tone, the Trump administration appears focused on preserving channels of communication, particularly given Ankara’s ability to influence Hamas, pressure Iran, and balance Russia in Syria.

Ankara’s relevance extends beyond the Middle East. Its strategic position gives it a role in resolving crises from Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting why Washington, despite tensions, is reluctant to alienate Türkiye entirely.

A Regional Power That Can’t Be Ignored

Türkiye is not just another actor in the region—it is a geopolitical pivot. Its location, military power, and energy connections make it indispensable in navigating 21st-century challenges. Whether in countering ISIS, managing refugee flows, or stabilizing energy corridors, Erdoğan’s Türkiye remains a player Washington can neither ignore nor fully control.