Türkiye Gains Strategic Ground in Syria as Russian Influence Wanes

The collapse of the Assad regime has reshaped Syria’s geopolitical landscape, reducing Russia’s dominance in the region and positioning Türkiye as the key beneficiary. As Moscow’s sway diminishes, Ankara is swiftly moving to expand its military footprint, strengthen economic integration via reconstruction efforts, and establish Syria as a forward defense line—transforming it into a strategic buffer zone.

This realignment is prompting unease in Moscow. Türkiye’s new posture, particularly its ability to coordinate directly with a cooperative government in Damascus, signifies a break from past dependencies. Russian military deployments no longer restrict Turkish operations against Kurdish YPG forces in northeastern Syria, offering Ankara a freer hand.

From Adversaries to Tactical Partners

Though Russia and Türkiye supported opposing factions during the Syrian Civil War, they developed a pragmatic approach to manage tensions, especially after Russia’s 2015 military intervention in support of Bashar al-Assad, working alongside Iranian-backed militias.

One of the most serious crises emerged in November 2015, when Türkiye downed a Russian warplane that briefly breached its airspace. However, relations were quickly mended after Russia backed President Erdoğan following the 2016 coup attempt in Türkiye.

By 2017, Türkiye shifted focus from ousting Assad to border security and neutralizing YPG militants. Along with Iran and Russia, Türkiye participated in the Astana Process, a diplomatic initiative aimed at stabilizing Syria while balancing regional power interests.

Redefining Regional Security Dynamics

Even as Syria’s leadership changes, Türkiye and Russia maintain compelling reasons to engage. Moscow is expected to take a pragmatic stance to retain its military footholds in Tartus and Hmeimim, and is already negotiating with Syria’s interim leadership for economic involvement and reconstruction opportunities.

Damascus remains interested in Russia’s role, partly due to Moscow’s UN Security Council membership and as a counterweight to Israeli intervention. Still, to ensure its stake in Syria’s future, Russia must now account for Türkiye’s growing influence—a scenario reminiscent of the South Caucasus, where Türkiye-backed Azerbaijan outmaneuvered Russia-aligned Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting a Russian withdrawal in 2023.

Energy Dependence Keeps Russia-Türkiye Ties Intact

Despite strategic rivalries, energy interdependence continues to anchor the relationship. With most Russian pipelines to Europe shut down, TurkStream—running through the Black Sea to Türkiye—remains the sole operational conduit for Russian gas exports to the EU. This route annually delivers around 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas to Türkiye, Hungary, and others. The economic leverage this provides Russia cannot afford to lose.

Ankara Still Sees Value in Russian Partnership

While Assad’s fall has reshaped power dynamics, Türkiye stresses that ties with Moscow remain unbroken. On April 25, the two countries held Middle East consultations in Istanbul at the deputy foreign minister level. Türkiye continues to see Russia as a balancer against Israeli influence in the region, and as a necessary partner in preventing an ISIS resurgence.

In the South Caucasus, the two powers support the 3+3 initiative, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Türkiye. The framework seeks to exclude non-regional actors, advocating for regional sovereignty. Even Iran, typically at odds with Ankara and Moscow, supports the concept—highlighting a rare strategic alignment.

Rivalry and Partnership in Motion

The ongoing power shift in Syria has introduced new points of friction, but it has not fractured the Türkiye-Russia relationship. Rather, it reflects the complex equilibrium between competition and cooperation. For now, collaboration outweighs conflict.