Türkiye Gains Ground in the Caucasus as Iran Faces Strategic Decline and Internal Strains

In the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Caucasus, a new strategic reality is emerging: Türkiye is advancing, while Iran struggles with regional fatigue and declining influence. From the battlefields of Nagorno-Karabakh to the corridors of regional diplomacy, recent events highlight Ankara’s growing assertiveness and Tehran’s diminishing clout.

At the heart of this transformation is Azerbaijan’s military success in 2020 and 2023, achieved with critical Turkish support—in logistics, intelligence, and arms. These victories redefined regional alliances, weakening Armenia, long backed by Iran, and upending the status quo that had persisted since the early 1990s.

Iran’s Misaligned Strategy: A Legacy of Contradictions

Iran’s enduring support for Christian Armenia over Shiite-majority Azerbaijan has long baffled observers and now appears increasingly unsustainable. Even during the first Karabakh war in the 1990s, Iran’s alignment contradicted its own claims of pan-Shiite solidarity. Today, Tehran’s regional posture is not just outdated—it’s increasingly irrelevant.

One focal point of this tension is the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed land link connecting mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via southern Armenia. For Türkiye and Azerbaijan, the project promises strategic continuity and economic integration. For Iran, however, it threatens the loss of its only direct land route to Armenia, raising the stakes in a region where it’s already losing leverage.

“Tehran’s response to these shifts has lacked coherence,” analysts observe, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Yerevan seen as symbolic rather than solution-oriented.

Demographic Challenge: The Rising Voice of Iran’s Turkic Population

Beneath the surface, Tehran faces a growing internal challenge: its Turkic-speaking population, estimated at 25–30% of the total, remains underrepresented and politically sidelined.

Despite symbolic gestures, such as having a president of Azerbaijani origin, real change has been absent. Long-standing demands for mother-tongue education and greater public participation remain unmet.

In contrast, Türkiye’s cultural influence—particularly in cities like Tabriz, Urmia, and Mashhad—is surging. Turkish media, language, and shared heritage resonate deeply. This soft power is reshaping cultural identity in northwest Iran, not through coercion, but through shared history and civilizational memory.

“Türkiye doesn’t need to provoke,” experts say. “Its influence is already in motion.”

Legal Legitimacy vs. Strategic Paralysis

Türkiye’s initiatives in the South Caucasus are anchored in international law: sovereignty, non-intervention, and territorial integrity. Projects like the Zangezur Corridor are being pursued through legal negotiation and mutual consent, not unilateralism.

Meanwhile, Iran’s diplomatic positioning appears increasingly out of sync. Its nuclear policy softening and missed opportunities in Karabakh point to a loss of strategic confidence.

Ankara’s Realignment, Yerevan’s Reorientation

Türkiye’s foreign policy today is pragmatic, transactional, and regionally integrated. It balances diplomacy with defense, dialogue with conditional cooperation. Ankara’s openness to engage with Armenia—contingent on Baku’s approval and Yerevan’s sincerity—marks a pivot from past hostilities to future-focused normalization.

Iran, on the other hand, remains stuck in ideological posturing. Its inability to block the Zangezur Corridor, defend Armenian interests, or offer a compelling vision has left it diplomatically isolated. Even Armenia is shifting, strengthening ties with the U.S. and the EU, while seeing Türkiye—not Iran—as central to the region’s future.

Regional Influence Redefined by Infrastructure and Integration

What Türkiye is building is not hegemony, but a network of connectivity: trade routes, energy corridors, diplomatic bridges. It is transforming influence into infrastructure, and alliances into actionable policy.

Iran continues to speak the language of past power, while Türkiye is writing the grammar of regional future.