Türkiye Faces Major Agricultural Downturn in 2025 as Crop Yields Plunge Across the Board

Türkiye is bracing for a significant decline in agricultural production in 2025, with official projections from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) pointing to widespread reductions across cereals, fruits, and vegetables. The troubling outlook has triggered warnings over food security, rural economic stability, and the increasing vulnerability of the nation’s agricultural sector to climate change and input cost pressures.

Total Agricultural Output to Shrink in 2025

According to TurkStat’s initial estimates:

• Cereal and field crops: 71.4 million tonnes

• Vegetables: 33 million tonnes

• Fruits, beverages, and spices: 21.4 million tonnes

Cereal Output Down Over 5%, Wheat Falls 5.8%

Production of cereals and other field crops is expected to fall by 5.3% year-over-year, with cereal output alone declining 4.1% to 37.4 million tonnes.

Key crop forecasts include:

• Wheat: 19.6 million tonnes (−5.8%)

• Barley: 7.5 million tonnes (−8.0%)

• Oats: 300,000 tonnes (−23.1%)

• Rye: 243,000 tonnes (−5.5%)

• Maize: 8.5 million tonnes (+4.9%)

Among dry pulses:

• Chickpeas: 605,000 tonnes

• Red lentils: 340,000 tonnes

• Dry beans: 283,000 tonnes

Potato production is forecast to drop sharply by 13%, falling to 6 million tonnes.

In oilseeds:

• Sunflowers: 2.3 million tonnes (+4.8%)

• Soybeans: 160,000 tonnes (−11.1%)

• Sugar beet: 21.5 million tonnes (−6.5%)

Vegetable Production to Dip Slightly

Vegetable output is projected to decrease by 1.7%, with mixed trends across subcategories:

• Watermelons: +3.5%

• Dry onions: +2.6%

• Eggplants: +3.3%

But staple vegetables will shrink:

• Tomatoes: −5.7%

• Capia peppers: −3.7%

• Green beans: −4.5%

Fruit and Nut Production Faces Sharpest Collapse – Down 24.4%

Fruit, beverage, and spice crops will see the steepest overall decline, plummeting by 24.4% to 21.4 million tonnes.

Devastating forecasts include:

• Apples: −38.7%

• Peaches: −32.1%

• Nectarines: −35.5%

• Cherries: −55.7%

• Grapes: −18.6%

In citrus:

• Mandarins: +0.6%

• Oranges: −12.4%

• Lemons: −20.9%

Nut production is expected to crash:

• Hazelnuts: −27.5%

• Walnuts: −27.7%

• Pistachios: −54.6%

Olive production is forecast to decline 40%, while bananas will remain stable.

Climate and Cost Pressures Behind the Decline

The downturn comes amid rising climate variability, water scarcity, and increased input costs, all of which are straining farmers’ resilience. Irrigation infrastructure challenges and insufficient policy support are also cited as key vulnerabilities.

With staple crops like wheat and potatoes declining, and sharp contractions in fruit and nut production, experts warn that food prices may rise, and Türkiye’s dependence on imports could grow.

Urgency for Policy Action

The data underscores the urgent need for a long-term national agricultural strategy focused on:

• Sustainable irrigation and water use

• Climate-resilient crops

• Rural infrastructure investment

• Support for small and medium-scale farmers

As Türkiye navigates what could become its most challenging agricultural year in recent memory, policymakers face mounting pressure to secure domestic food supplies and protect one of the country’s most vital economic sectors.