TURKISH Markets Report

BIST 100 climbs above 11,000 as markets await CBRT Inflation Report

Summary:

Istanbul’s BIST 100 index returned above the 11,000 level, supported by gains in bank stocks and improving foreign inflows. Investors are now focused on today’s Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) Inflation Report, which may include upward revisions to 2025 inflation projections amid ongoing pricing pressures and currency weakness. The lira continues its gradual depreciation trend, while U.S. markets remain cautious ahead of key inflation data.

Strong momentum in BIST 100 driven by banks, technical bullishness above 11,000

The BIST 100 began the week by reclaiming the 11,000 threshold, a level that previously acted as a tough resistance point. As long as the index remains above this zone, analysts say the short-term uptrend remains intact.

• 11,000 has turned into strong support.

• The next resistance is located at 11,160, the previous record.

• A breakout above that level may trigger further upside toward new highs.

Bank stocks are leading the gains. The banking index continues to form a triangle consolidation pattern, signaling a potential breakout.

If the banking index breaks above 15,350, upside targets move toward 15,600–16,000.

Foreign interest has also improved in recent weeks amid Turkey’s commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy. CDS spreads — a measure of perceived default risk — continue to decline, supporting inflows into equities.

All eyes on the CBRT Inflation Report

The Central Bank of Türkiye will release its quarterly Inflation Report at 10:30 AM local time.

In the previous report (August):

• Year-end 2025 inflation forecast range: 25–29%

• Midpoint target: 27%

Given that realized inflation has overshot previous projections, economists broadly expect an upward revision to the 2025 path.

Reasons analysts expect a revision:

• Persistent cost inflation due to wages, rents and taxes

• A weaker Turkish lira

• Sticky service-sector inflation

The report will also provide fresh signals on:

• Timing of potential interest rate cuts in late 2025

• The Bank’s stance on liquidity tightening

• Communication strategy heading into local elections

A material upward adjustment to inflation projections could delay expectations of monetary easing — a scenario that would likely support Turkish assets.

Bond market: mixed pricing, but country risk continues to improve

Turkish government bonds were mixed on Thursday:

Lower CDS values indicate improved investor confidence and often precede foreign inflows into equities and local-currency bonds.

Globally, U.S. bond yields remain elevated after the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing that rate cuts remain conditional on data.

USD/TRY continues its slow, controlled upward trend

The U.S. dollar maintains strength against emerging-market currencies, and the Turkish lira is no exception. USD/TRY has moved above 42.20, which now serves as a short-term pivot.

Technical outlook:

• Above 42.20, targets are 42.30–42.40

• Holding above 42.00 reinforces the upward bias

• No signs yet of aggressive intervention

The move reflects:

• Seasonal corporate FX demand

• Higher U.S. rates keeping the dollar strong globally

• CBRT’s tight monetary policy avoiding disorderly moves but allowing gradual adjustment

EUR/USD attempts to build a short-term bottom

The euro-dollar pair rebounded from the 1.1460 support level. If the pair holds above 1.1540, it may target 1.1600–1.1650.

Despite this relief bounce, the broader trend still favors the dollar due to:

• The Fed’s data-dependent stance

• Strong U.S. consumer spending

• Slower European growth momentum

Gold: range-bound but preparing for a breakout

Gold remains confined to a wide 3880–4050 USD band as traders assess the timing of future Fed cuts.

• 4050 USD remains the critical resistance

• A sustained breakout above this zone could renew the bullish trend

In Turkish lira terms, gram gold remains supported both by international gold prices and the weaker TRY:

Today’s key events / Data watch

The CBRT report is the dominant catalyst for Turkish markets today. U.S. sentiment data may influence USD and global risk appetite heading into the weekend.

Market takeaway

• BIST 100 above 11,000 = bullish

• Bank stocks continue to lead the momentum

• CBRT’s inflation forecast adjustments will shape expectations for rates and FX into 2025

• Declining CDS supports foreign inflows

• Lira depreciation remains gradual and controlled

If the CBRT signals delayed rate cuts or stronger commitment to tightening, Turkish assets — especially equities and TL bonds — may benefit further.

Source:  QNB Invest

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