Turkish Farm Prices Surge to a Three-Month High

According to the latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the Agricultural Producer Price Index (Tarım-ÜFE) recorded its sharpest monthly rise in the last three months, climbing 5.80% in September. Compared to the same month a year earlier, prices at the farm gate surged 46.83%, while prices have increased 29% since the start of the year and 38% based on 12-month averages. The strongest annual price jump was observed in the category of “soft and hard-seeded fruits,” which skyrocketed 155.54% year-on-year. Economists warn that this acceleration in agricultural prices is likely to fuel consumer inflation (CPI) in the coming months and **undermine the Central Bank’s year-end inflation target of 24%.

“Price Stickiness Threatens Inflation Outlook”

Assoc. Prof. Orhan Karaca from Istanbul Kent University notes that inflation has become “sticky” across sectors and expects another notable increase in consumer prices: “There’s an expectation of around 3% CPI rise in October. This would mean entering the final two months of the year with nearly 33.5% inflation. Missing this year’s target will make achieving next year’s goal even more difficult,” he said. Karaca warned that this trend could force the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) to pause its interest-rate cuts, adding that the persistence of cost-driven inflation shows that monetary policy alone may not be sufficient to contain price pressures.

“Food Prices Now a National Security Issue”

Prof. Murat Birdal of Istanbul University described the soaring food prices as a direct threat to both economic and social stability: “Headline inflation is rising far below the pace of food inflation. This means the minimum wage will continue to lose purchasing power, and the impoverishment of broad population groups will accelerate,” he said. Birdal stressed that the problem lies in Türkiye’s structural dependency on imported agricultural inputs, particularly chemical fertilizers and pesticides. “Our agricultural input structure is highly dependent on imports, so international price shocks hit the sector extremely hard. Food security is a national security issue. The state must develop a long-term strategy to secure the food supply chain and domestic production,” he emphasized.

“Ignoring Production Costs Is a Policy Mistake”

Baki Remzi Suiçmez, President of the Chamber of Agricultural Engineers (ZMO), echoed similar concerns, criticizing policymakers for overlooking the real causes behind high food inflation. “Those in charge of the economy attribute rising prices to frost or drought, but the real reason is high production costs,” he said. Suiçmez urged the government to support producers and prevent them from leaving agriculture, warning that failure to do so will make affordable, healthy food increasingly unreachable. “It’s essential to keep farmers in production; otherwise, access to safe and cheap food will remain a dream,” he added.

Fertilizer Costs and Lost Pastures Deepen the Crisis

Adnan Çobanoğlu, the Organization Secretary of Çiftçi-Sen, drew attention to the growing burden of chemical inputs and the long-term damage to soil health. “The so-called chemicals used under the name of productivity boosters are actually toxic and costly,” he said. He highlighted the escalating issue of chemical fertilizer dependency, explaining that it not only drives costs higher but also reduces soil fertility over time. Çobanoğlu also linked the decline in livestock farming to the loss of communal pastures under the Metropolitan Municipality Law, noting that “when families lost their grazing lands, they stopped raising animals at home. Yet, animal and crop production complement each other and help reduce overall costs.”

Inflationary Ripple Effects on Consumers

The surge in Tarım-ÜFE suggests that the rise in producer costs will soon filter through to consumer prices, pushing food inflation even higher in the last quarter of the year. Economists agree that this dynamic will erode household purchasing power, worsen income inequality, and complicate the Central Bank’s disinflation strategy. The persistent increase in agricultural input costs, combined with Türkiye’s import dependency, points to a structural inflation problem — one that cannot be solved through short-term monetary interventions alone.

As farm-gate prices climb to multi-year highs, experts warn that Türkiye’s food supply chain needs urgent restructuring, encompassing domestic fertilizer production, sustainable farming practices, and renewed rural investment. Without these reforms, the country risks entering 2026 with a new wave of food inflation that could transform a long-standing economic challenge into a national security crisis.