Turkey’s Treasury Borrows Four Times More Than It Repays in First Seven Months of 2025
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In the first seven months of 2025, Turkey’s Treasury repaid 520 billion TL in principal debt but borrowed a staggering 2.1 trillion TL in return. Economist Alaattin Aktaş warns that such an imbalance has “never been seen before,” describing it as “paying back 100 units, borrowing 400.”
Aktaş recalculated the country’s domestic borrowing ratio and revealed that for every 100 TL of principal repayment, the Treasury took on 407 TL in new debt — a sign of a deepening budgetary vicious cycle.
Difference Between Official and Real Ratios
Traditionally, the domestic debt rollover ratio is calculated using the formula: (principal + interest payments) / total borrowing. However, Aktaş points out that interest is covered directly from the budget, meaning new borrowing primarily goes toward paying off principal debt.
By comparing only principal repayments with new borrowing, he says, the real picture emerges. Using the traditional method, the ratio for January–July 2025 stands at 141%. But with Aktaş’s adjustment, it soars to 407%.
Historical Debt Imbalance in Numbers
From January to July, the Treasury repaid 519.5 billion TL in principal, made 985.6 billion TL in interest payments, and borrowed 2.1 trillion TL. This means it borrowed 1.6 trillion TL more than the amount repaid in principal over just seven months.
Why Borrowing Is Rising
Aktaş attributes this surge to the widening budget deficit, which forces the Treasury into continuous borrowing. Since borrowing far exceeds repayments, the debt load grows each year, intensifying the interest burden on the national budget.
Warning of a Perpetual Debt Cycle
Using a family business analogy, Aktaş warns that the Treasury’s escalating debt will eventually need to be repaid along with interest, perpetuating a self-reinforcing debt spiral that becomes harder to break over time.
