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Turkey’s September Inflation Forecast at 2.5%, as Economists Revise 2025–2026 Projections Higher

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Ahead of the official September inflation data release on October 3, a new economist survey reveals persistent price pressures and signals further deterioration in medium-term inflation expectations. Dollar forecasts, however, remain stable in the short term.

Inflation Expected to Accelerate in September

With Turkey’s statistical agency (TÜİK) set to release official September inflation figures this coming Friday, expectations compiled by ForInvest Haber from 22 economists show an anticipated monthly CPI rise of 2.50%, signaling that inflationary pressures remain strong.

The median forecast for September’s monthly CPI came in at 2.50%, with an average of 2.48%. Estimates ranged between 2.10% and 2.84%. If realized, these figures would push annual inflation to a median estimate of 32.38%, down from 33.52% in August. The average annual CPI forecast stood at 32.32%, within a narrow band of 31.91% to 32.78%.

This follows August’s inflation surprise, where CPI rose 2.06%, exceeding forecasts of 1.80%, and pushing annual inflation higher.

Core Inflation (C Index) Also Running Hot

The survey also pointed to high expectations for Turkey’s core inflation index (C Index) — which excludes volatile items like energy, food, alcohol, tobacco, and gold.

For September, economists expect core CPI to rise 2.79% on a monthly basis, with an annual increase of 32.05%, underscoring the persistence of broad-based price pressures even when volatile items are stripped out.

Medium-Term Inflation Outlook Worsens

One of the most concerning signals from the ForInvest survey was the upward revision of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts.

  • The year-end 2025 CPI median forecast rose from 29.90% to 30.00%, with estimates ranging from 29.20% to 31.52%.

  • Likewise, the C Index forecast for 2025 increased from 29.50% to 30.00%.

For 2026, inflation expectations ticked slightly higher as well:

  • The year-end 2026 CPI forecast rose from 21.70% to 21.80%,

  • And the 12-month ahead inflation expectation was recorded at 23.10%.

These upward revisions reflect concerns about structural inflation persistence, weakening monetary credibility, and price rigidities in key sectors of the economy.

Dollar/Lira Forecast: No Short-Term Change, But Long-Term Pressure Builds

ForInvest also surveyed 14 analysts on their USD/TRY forecasts.

  • The year-end 2025 median forecast held steady at 44.00, suggesting expectations for controlled depreciation in the near term, likely under a managed float system.

However, long-term forecasts shifted upward:

  • The 12-month ahead USD/TRY forecast was revised to 49.00,

  • While the 2026 year-end projection rose slightly from 51.50 to 51.83, pointing to a continuation of the lira’s structural depreciation trend amid inflationary and external imbalances.

Summary

The latest survey of Turkish economists paints a cautious picture for the inflation path ahead. While short-term dollar forecasts remain stable, inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 have deteriorated, driven by sticky core prices and concerns over economic rebalancing.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will face increasing pressure to sustain tight monetary policy in the face of weakening demand and persistent price pressures, as financial markets await signals on the future direction of rate policy and fiscal discipline heading into 2026.

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