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Turkey’s Nuclear Family Model Is Fracturing as Divorces Rise and Single-Person Households Surge

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A new social research report reveals that birth rates are declining, marriages are delayed, and traditional family structures are being replaced by alternative living arrangements.

The traditional nuclear family model in Turkey is rapidly losing dominance, according to the 2024 Social Outlook Report published by the Center for Social Thought and Research (TODAM). The report provides a comprehensive look at Turkey’s social transformation over the past decade, analyzing data on education, health, demography, household composition, employment, law, and migration.

Population Growth Slows, Median Age Rises

Turkey’s population growth rate has dropped to just 1.1%, with the 0–14 age group falling to 20.9%, while the share of citizens aged 65 and older has climbed to 10.6%.

The median age is now 34, and the 40–44 age group is the most populous cohort in the demographic pyramid. These shifts indicate a maturing population, with long-term implications for economic productivity and social support systems.

Fertility and Family Size in Decline

Turkey’s total fertility rate stands at 1.51, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. The sharpest declines are being observed in the Southeastern and Eastern Anatolia regions.

Average household size has fallen steadily from 3.68 in 2010 to 3.11 in 2024, reflecting a long-term trend toward smaller families, delayed marriage, and fewer children.

Nuclear Family Losing Ground

In 2014, nuclear families (typically consisting of two parents and children) made up 45% of all households. By 2024, this figure had dropped to 38%.

Meanwhile, single-parent families, single-person households, and non-traditional living arrangements have become increasingly common. One in every five households in Turkey now consists of a single individual—a growing trend among both young adults and elderly women.

In nuclear families specifically, the share of two-parent households with children fell from 67.8% in 2014 to 60.7% in 2024, while the proportion of single-parent families rose from 11.3% to 17.2% during the same period.

Marriages Down, Divorces Up

Marriage and fertility are being increasingly postponed:

  • Average age at first marriage: 25.8 for women, 28.3 for men

  • Average age at first childbirth: 29.2, reflecting a delay in motherhood

Official figures for 2023 show:

  • 565,000 couples married

  • 171,000 couples divorced

This results in a crude marriage rate of 6.63 per 1,000 people and a crude divorce rate of 2.01 per 1,000. In effect, for every three marriages, there is roughly one divorce, signaling growing structural vulnerabilities in the institution of family.

Rising Poverty Risks for Children and the Elderly

Despite slight improvements since 2021, 38.9% of children in Turkey remain at risk of poverty or social exclusion due to material deprivation, low household income, or parental unemployment.

In the 15–17 age group, 19.6% of children are part of the labor force—meaning nearly one in four children is working, often in precarious conditions.

At the other end of the age spectrum, one in every four elderly citizens is at risk of poverty and exclusion.

Youth Disengagement: Education and Employment Gaps

The report also highlights a worrying trend in youth participation:

  • 22.9% of people aged 15–24 are neither in education nor employment (NEET), indicating disengagement from both school and the labor market.

This poses long-term social and economic risks, as large segments of the youth population remain disconnected from formal opportunities.

Housing Strains and Declining Homeownership

With rising rent and property prices, housing security is increasingly fragile—especially for low-income households. Housing costs now account for approximately one-quarter of household spending, followed closely by food and beverage expenses.

Homeownership rates continue to fall, adding further stress to economically vulnerable families.

Source: Center for Social Thought and Research (TODAM), via Yeni Şafak

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