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Turkey’s New Political Mood: Deepening Public Distrust, Strong Pushback Against Lottery Games, and Shifting Party Support

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Summary:


New nationwide surveys conducted in November 2025 reveal a sharp erosion of public trust in Turkey’s lottery and betting systems, broad cross-party rejection of online gambling, and a fluid political landscape marked by rising uncertainty and notable shifts among major parties. The same polling wave also provides new insights into presidential matchups and changing voter flows across the political spectrum.

Public Distrust Surges: Strong Opposition to Betting and Lottery Systems

A new “Turkey Agenda Survey” by Gündemar Research shows overwhelming societal skepticism toward both legal and illegal betting systems.

Key findings:

  • 80% oppose online sports betting

  • 74% oppose lottery-style games such as “scratch cards” and national draws

  • 75% do not trust the Milli Piyango (state lottery)

  • Only 24% say they will buy a lottery ticket for the New Year

The results suggest a broad-based collapse in confidence—spanning both government and opposition voters—toward chance-based gaming systems.

Party Preferences Do Not Shape Attitudes Toward Betting

Gündemar Chairman Prof. Dr. Tamer Bolat emphasized that political identity is not a meaningful driver of attitudes on gambling:

“There is virtually no difference between parties. Around 76% of both CHP and AK Party voters oppose online sports betting.”

Support for illegal betting is even lower: 90% of respondents oppose unregistered or offshore gambling sites.
Meanwhile, 87% oppose football-related betting activities.

The distrust appears structural rather than partisan.

Milli Piyango Trust Levels Remain Extremely Low

Trust in Milli Piyango across party groups:

  • AK Party: 24%

  • MHP: 14%

  • CHP: 11%

  • Good Party: 8%

  • DEM Party: 8%

In every voting bloc, a strong majority—between 60% and 85%—say they do not trust the state lottery.

Presidential Scenario: Mansur Yavaş Leads Erdoğan

A Saros Research presidential scenario tested Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

  • Mansur Yavaş: 56.3%

  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 43.7%

The result indicates significant crossover support from nationalist and center-right voters.

The Poll on Özgür Özel’s Desk: Party Vote Shares and Voter Flows

A survey shared with CHP Chairman Özgür Özel—conducted across 55 provinces with 2,975 respondents—shows current party standings:

Party Vote Intentions

  • CHP: 39.4%

  • AK Party: 33%

  • MHP: 6.1%

  • DEM Party: 7%

Undecided voters: 23.3%

Additional insights:

  • CHP’s vote fell 2 points from October to November.

  • AK Party’s vote rose 2 points in the same period.

  • CHP retains 86.8% of its 2023 voters.

  • Nearly half of İYİ Party and TİP voters have moved toward CHP.

  • CHP receives:

    • 7% of AK Party voters

    • 16.3% of MHP voters

  • Among non-voters, 21.1% now lean toward CHP.

  • Among new voters, CHP leads with 33.6%.

Support for the ongoing “Imralı process” also rose from 55% in October to 58% in November, though a plurality (57%) still views MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s call for an Imralı delegation negatively.

A New Political Landscape

The November 2025 survey wave reveals four distinct dynamics shaping Turkey’s political environment:

  1. A deepening nationwide trust deficit, especially toward chance-based public institutions.

  2. Convergence in attitudes across party lines on social and ethical issues.

  3. High volatility among undecided and young voters, with potential to reshape future elections.

  4. Shifting alliances and voter flows, particularly toward the CHP in certain demographic clusters.

Turkey enters 2026 with a more fragmented but highly dynamic political mood, driven by economic pressures, credibility concerns, and shifting expectations around governance.

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