Turkey’s Food Inflation Crisis Deepens as Wages Fall Further Behind

The pressure on household budgets in Turkey continues to intensify, with new data showing that food inflation is eroding purchasing power at a pace far exceeding income growth. According to figures released by the Birleşik Kamu-İş Confederation for December 2025, basic food prices have risen by 54% on an annual average, while the monthly increase was 2.6%. More strikingly, food prices have now increased for 67 consecutive months, underscoring the persistence—and structural nature—of the crisis.

The numbers paint a stark picture of shrinking dining tables. A basic food basket that cost 1,000 Turkish lira in 2024 now costs 1,540 lira in 2025, forcing households to spend significantly more to maintain the same level of consumption. Since September 2021, food prices have surged by 1,508%, while wage increases have failed to keep pace, leaving workers steadily poorer in real terms.

Food Prices Outrun Incomes by a Wide Margin

Calculations by KAMU-AR, the research arm of Birleşik Kamu-İş, show that as of December 2025, the cost of a food basket consisting of the most commonly consumed staple products rose 44.5% year-on-year. Over the entirety of 2025, prices climbed 54% compared to the previous year’s average, meaning households paid 540 lira more for the same basket than a year earlier.

The uninterrupted upward trend continued into December, with prices rising 2.6% compared to November. As a result, a basket that could be purchased for 100 lira in September 2021 reached 1,608 lira by December 2025. Over the same period, public sector wage increases totaled 1,034%, a figure that looks substantial in isolation but remains far below the 1,508% rise in food prices.

This widening gap highlights a critical imbalance: income policies have consistently lagged behind the cost of living, particularly for essential goods.

Sharp Increases in Fruit, Vegetables, and Pulses

KAMU-AR’s analysis, based on a basket of 64 food items, reveals significant price pressures across key categories in December alone. Fruit prices rose by 10.2%, vegetables by 6.1%, and pulses by 10.4%. Meat and fish prices increased 4.7%, while processed food products recorded a 3.2% rise.

Some categories offered limited relief. Milk, dairy products, and eggs fell 3.5%, while oil prices remained unchanged. Bread, flour, rice, and pasta prices were also flat for the month. However, these modest pauses did little to offset the broader inflationary trend.

Fruits Lead Annual Price Increases

On a year-on-year basis, fruit prices surged by 73.4%, making them the fastest-rising category. Meat and fish followed with an increase of 66.7%, while vegetables climbed 46.6%. Dairy prices rose 29.1%, oils 31.3%, pulses 27.3%, and other processed foods 31.1%.

Looking at 12-month average prices for 2025, the scale of the problem becomes even clearer. Fruit prices soared 148.2%, vegetables 89.9%, meat and fish 49.9%, and milk and eggs 33.4%. Even traditionally cheaper staples such as pulses (20.5%) and bread and flour products (35.2%) posted steep increases.

The Social Cost of Persistent Food Inflation

The social consequences of these figures are increasingly difficult to ignore. According to consumption data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the poorest 20% of households spend nearly one-third of their income on food. In 2024, this ratio stood at 30.4%.

However, rising costs for housing, transportation, and utilities have begun to crowd out spending on food. For many low-income households, maintaining basic nutrition now requires sacrificing other essentials—or simply consuming less.

While food accounts for roughly 25% of the official inflation basket, its real impact is far greater for lower-income groups, for whom food remains the primary determinant of inflation. This disconnect fuels criticism that headline inflation figures understate the lived reality of millions.

Structural Problems, No Easy Exit

KAMU-AR warns that the upward trend in food prices is unlikely to reverse soon, pointing to structural problems in agriculture, rising input costs, and weak supply-side reforms. Without addressing productivity, distribution inefficiencies, and dependency on imports, price pressures are expected to persist into the coming months.

The data suggests that Turkey’s food inflation problem is no longer cyclical—it is systemic. As wages continue to trail behind essential living costs, the gap between income and survival expenses widens, raising uncomfortable questions about the sustainability of current economic policies and the long-term impact on social welfare.