Turkey’s Fertility Rate Falls to Historic Lows as Economic Hardship and Insecurity Drive Demographic Decline
yasli
Summary:
Turkey’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.48 children per woman, the lowest in modern records and well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, according to new data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). The decline, ongoing since 2014, signals a deep demographic shift that experts warn could reshape Turkey’s labour force, economic structure, and long-term social stability. Analysts say rising poverty, job insecurity, and collapsing household income expectations are among the main drivers behind falling births.
A policy failure: “Three children” campaign fails to reverse decline
In 2008, then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged families to have at least three children, warning that Turkey’s population could shrink. Nearly two decades later, the trend has reversed in the opposite direction.
Instead of rising, births continued to fall steadily:
| Year | Total Fertility Rate |
|---|---|
| 2001 | 2.38 |
| 2014 | Descent begins |
| 2018 | Below 2.0 for first time |
| 2024/25 | 1.48 |
The number is one of the lowest among OECD countries and near levels seen in rapidly ageing societies such as South Korea, Spain and Italy.
The economic angle: wages shrink, cost of living soars
The fertility decline coincides with worsening living conditions:
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Hunger threshold (Nov 2025): 29,827 TL
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Poverty threshold: 97,159 TL
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Minimum wage: 22,104 TL
Families are delaying or abandoning plans for children as basic living costs exceed income levels. Sociologists note that young people are prioritising survival over family planning.
TÜİK official warns of “high-alert zone”
TÜİK Deputy Chair Furkan Metin described the current trajectory as alarming:
“Approaching 1.4 is a high-alert level for demographic sustainability.”
If trends continue, Metin says Turkey’s median age could rise above 45 within 40 years, placing the country in the category of “very old societies”.
He warned the shift would reduce economic dynamism:
“A Turkey with an average age of 45 will not have the same energy as a Turkey in the 1990s.”
Ageing society is already a reality
Turkey crossed into the “aged country” category last year. Demographers project that:
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The share of elderly population could exceed 25% within 25 years
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Labour force participation will decline
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Pension and healthcare expenditure will rise sharply
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Economic growth potential may weaken without strong immigration or productivity gains
Experts say the slowdown is not only demographic but also socioeconomic, increasing pressure on welfare spending and inter-generational transfer systems.
The bottom line
Turkey is entering an irreversible demographic transition unless structural economic reforms and family-support policies are implemented. More wealth, security, childcare support and inclusive social policy will be needed to reverse the trend.
Fertility decline is no longer just a statistic — it is a long-term economic and social challenge.
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