Turkey’s Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement Level: Experts Point to Economic Insecurity, Not Working Women
Fertility Rate in Turkey
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Turkey’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.48 children per woman in 2024—far below the population replacement level of 2.1 and down from 2.38 in 2001. The steep decline has prompted political concern, but experts argue that blaming women’s participation in the workforce is both unscientific and misguided.
“Employment Doesn’t Reduce Births,” Says UK-Based Economist
Associate Professor Cem Oyvat of Greenwich University emphasized that in OECD countries, there is actually a positive correlation between female labor participation and fertility rates. “Women working does not reduce birth rates. In fact, in many developed countries, as women become more active in the workforce, fertility remains stable or even improves,” he stated.
Oyvat criticized those linking Turkey’s falling fertility to increased female employment, noting that Turkey still has one of the lowest female labor force participation rates in the OECD, yet its fertility continues to decline.
“This is not unique to Turkey. Similar trends are seen in Iran, India, Tunisia, and Nepal,” he explained. “The core issue is economic insecurity, compounded by the rising cost of urban living.”
Education Is Not the Enemy
Oyvat also addressed growing rhetoric suggesting that female education is to blame for demographic change:
“Reducing access to education for women will neither help economic growth nor advance social development. Encouraging women’s participation in education and employment is vital for both social equity and demographic stability.”
Future Anxiety and Multidimensional Crisis Are Key Drivers
Ayşe Kaşıkırık, President of the Global Equality and Inclusion Network, agrees that the falling fertility rate reflects a multifaceted crisis. She highlights that inflation, economic uncertainty, and a lack of future security are shaping family decisions.
“Families hesitate to have children when their future feels uncertain,” Kaşıkırık said. “Beyond economics, cultural barriers such as limited access to education for girls and early marriages also play a significant role.”
She points out that countries like those in Northern Europe have stabilized birth rates not through population control, but by empowering women and ensuring social equality.
“In Turkey, instead of supporting women, their lives are still tightly regulated. That’s the real obstacle.”
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